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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shtirlitz who wrote (67828)	1/28/2001 11:57:08 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

An important issue that has received little discussion is the the fact that stocks prices still are MUCH HIGHER by almost any measure than they were at the bottom of past bear markets. Stock market capitalization still is more than 100% of GDP. That is above the level seen at past peaks, much less at past troughs. Now I am not saying that the market must go down to the levels seen at past toughs. But the idea that the bear market is over is nothing short of absurd. Yes we now are experiencing a strong bear market rally that likely has a ways to go yet after another pullback. But it is NOT a new bull market My expectation is that all the major averages will drop to or near their 1998 lows (probably late this year) before a new sustained bull can begin.