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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J.T. who wrote (6335)1/28/2001 8:07:38 AM
From: macavity  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19219
 
J.T.

What am I missing?

What does everyone see in Gold?

The metal:

Monthly Charts.
I agree the selling seems to be abating. Gold can easily test/break the 1999 lows and still show bullish divergences in monthly charts. Stochastics are o/sold and have turned down.

Weekly Charts
Still has to break the trendline from the 1999 High. Weekly close above the 20O1 high of 276.85 should do it. Stochastics have turned down.

I cannot see why everyone is raving about it still. I am convinced that the Central Banks will close out the shorts' positions for them at their taxpayers expense (think of the ERM fiasco and every other time a CB gets involved).

The companies are clearly not the same play as the price. Their hedge books mean that some of these muppets may actually lose money on any rise (the beauty of highly-leveraged derivatives). Long Gold Short XAU ? Not yet anyway!

The Stocks - XAU:
More bullish than the price.
Do these lead the price? Broken bear trendline resistance from 99 High and seems to be testing support in 47.5/48 region. Rally Higher ? Perhaps, but I am not holding my breath. I think that there are better stock charts around.

My view is that now that currencies can float freely (ish) there is not as much need for gold. Unless Japan starts printing money (whoops ! - too late), America starts printing money (starting already) and Europe (not yet). Even if all 3 do it, then would not CHF be a better long-term play ?

There's too much hope in Gold.

- macavity.