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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (67835)	1/28/2001 11:49:12 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

If the slow down in the economy degrades into a full fledged recession (which somehow, the Bush/Cheney team is doing its best to assure) Zeev, I shouldn't venture far from the charts but I certainly agree with your comment. I think that Greenspan's awfully frank statement that the US is at or near zero growth rate right now is pretty surprising talk coming from him. Although I viewed the intrameeting rate cut as an implicit admission from policy makers that something even more serious than Nasdaq bubble breaking is afoot. A friend comments that it seems most economists are all singing the same tune 'slow down, no recession' so naturally we must all be suspicious! My gut and little else suggests to me that the current decline in markets and economy is far from over, but I've not got the conviction or background knowledge to be able to trade from that, so I'm careful to distance myself from my opinions on such matters when I am placing trades. Having said that, ultimately I suspect that a lower low will be set. Just the same, we know from long experience that more people want to buy and believe than not, so it won't be a surprise to this observer if significant rallies occur before a lower low occurs. A tip off, I believe, will be a breakdown in the NYA. If there is to be another major wave of selling I'd like to think that both Nasdaq and NYSE join hands. There's a multi-month consolidation zone in the NYSE NYA index and it should be interesting when price leaves that zone. mostly idle musing, mike