Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (62441)	1/28/2001 5:46:20 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

My post was not so much an argument, but a proposed scenario of how things could evolve, assuming the fed does lower rates and the dollar does decline. My hope was to find a silver lining in what is a very possible outcome. You are correct in that I ignored long term rates. My hope is that they come down to 4% (real rate of 4%) so that my brother can refinance his mortgage. <g> Of course, this slaughters my CD's, which are too short term in nature. But maybe I can role them into real estate, which I don't own, and would like to own, say 25% of assets. If we truly have deflation, in sectors ex Energy, then real rates of 4% should not be out of the question. I think I've gotten so wrapped up in what is happening in my own backyard, that I'm overlooking the global picture. Yeah, things look grim for the US at the moment. But does the world really suffer if these events come to pass? I almost see this as an inversion of 98. Then Asia fell into a regional recession/depression, while most of the world (ex latin) chugged along ok. Australia got hit hard because resource prices dropped, and they were heavy trading partners of the SE Asia block. Now, if the US drops into a recession/depression, but the world ex US continues to chug along, perhaps resources don't drop and Australia benefits from the flip side, selling into recovering SE Asia. This is a hard sell, given Japan's condition and the over dependence on TW and Korea on semiconductor sales. But I'm trying to believe <g>

To: Lucretius who wrote (62441)	1/28/2001 5:56:36 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Just some tidbits to keep the bearish flame alive; below is a heavily edited extract of a report on the state of advertising. Media & Entertainment – 26 January 2001 (Continued) We are increasingly concerned about the deteriorating trends within the US advertising market. ... we are now seeing signs that large advertisers are exercising cancellation options for upfront commitments. Following a sharp decline in the health of the advertising market in the fourth quarter of CY00, trends thus far in CY01 appear to be getting worse. Given the abundance of overall weak economic signs coupled with a seemingly unending number of companies that have reported (or pre-announced) weak Q4 profitability, it should hardly be a surprise that advertising growth continues to wane. While many have argued that advertising is not cyclical, i.e. insulated from economic factors, we would argue that in the near-term, companies under pressure to meet earnings estimates are likely to cut back on advertising as a first response. Unfortunately, the current picture is bleak – and appears to be getting bleaker. We believe that GM is exercising its maximum cancellation option on network commitments of 50% of broadcast television. Automotive and retail have joined dot-com as weak advertising sectors.