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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (88959)	1/29/2001 4:20:06 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Been trying to paint a brighter picture for the future. Even bought some GF, SGF & EWS. Just to demonstrate to mister market my conviction. Message 15259613 Message 15260457 Not having much luck. From Stephen Roach; Given the globalization of America’s supply chain, there is a high risk that a US capital spending contraction will have significant cross-border repercussions. Signs of such spillovers have first become evident in Asia. In the final months of 2000, there was a dramatic compression of export momentum in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China; a decomposition of the data reveals that the culprit was exports to the US, especially IT. A similar pattern is evident in Japan, where the trade surplus narrowed appreciably in the final four months of 2000; leading the way, not surprisingly, was a compression in IT-related exports. In contrast to Asia’s lightening fast IT-led response, reverberations have lagged in America’s NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico. However, with American exports accounting for 32% of Canadian GDP and 25% of Mexican GDP, it’s only a matter of time, in my opinion, before the broader NAFTA region feels the cyclical heat. Asia’s relatively quick response to a US downturn suggests that the speed of adjustments in the IT supply chain outstrip those in the more traditional old-economy supply chain that drive NAFTA linkages in sectors like motor vehicles. In the end, however, I see no reason to doubt that NAFTA-related spillovers are also in the works msdw.com Further down, Euroland: All good things come to an end by Christel Rendu (London) Belgian survey contains bad news about its neighbours The Belgian business survey tends to be a good indicator, not only of Belgian growth but also of Euroland growth. Indeed, Belgium's exports to the Euro zone account for 45% of its GDP. So, when Belgian producers get gloomy, it is almost surely a sign that demand weakened in the zone and in particular in Germany, France and the Netherlands. In the latest Belgian survey, the number of manufacturers judging that weak demand was limiting their production was on the rise for the first time in two years. Even more eye-catching was the fact that assessment of recent past export orders was hammered in December, down 20 points to -4. Such a sharp correction had not taken place since September 1998, in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. Surely, this is not a lucky coincidence. Check out this unknown- CEE finance.yahoo.com What do they know that we don't? They are able to use options, including puts. Maybe that's it.