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To: michael97123 who wrote (41744)	1/29/2001 11:24:37 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, Does anyone believe it possible that Fed will lower by 3/4 point? By the gradualist Greenspan? Low single digits percent chance of that, if that, IMO. What I really wanted to say is that your teams are making it to the championship series/game (Mets and Jints), but are getting creamed. I know, at least they got there. Collins went from Joe Montana to Tony Eason, didn't he? With pro hoops sucking rather a lot lately, bring on baseball. TV

To: michael97123 who wrote (41744)	1/29/2001 11:25:19 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I won't try to guess what Greenie will do but since the market appears ready to be disappointed with 1/4, expecting 1/2, and (I am guessing) wondering whether 1/2 is enough, 3/4 would be most welcome and might take some tarnish off the vaunted one's reputation. I think the market needs the 3/4 to move forward.

To: michael97123 who wrote (41744)	1/30/2001 2:58:26 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, I was watching the business programs tonight and everyone it seems is predicting a 50 basis point cut, including some former Fed governors. There was no mention at all of going further, I wonder if there is some kind of rule that would limit that, as they all seem to agree that more cuts will be needed as well. Lastly, the Fed futures contracts are supposedly pricing in about a 90% chance of a 50 basis point cut. A larger cut would be nice though. One last comment, my main man, Tom Costello on CNBC (love his "Trader Talk" thing each night), referenced some guy who did a study on past Fed rate cuts. This guy said if the market runs up tomorrow than it will likely pull back Wed. Conversely, if it pulls back Tues, it should run up Wed. He said there was about a 75% chance of this behavior, interesting. John

To: michael97123 who wrote (41744)	1/30/2001 4:16:08 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Michael, This is probably old news now, but AMAT just warned. Also, checking CNBC right after the close today, it was mentioned that there was a lot of talk today of a possible 3/4 point cut by the Fed tomorrow. Maybe that just sets us up for a sell-off if we get the widely anticipated 50 bp cut. It was also mentioned that for a 50 bp cut, the resulting cut of 100 bp in one month would make the combined rate cuts rather extraordinary. I think they said the last time the Fed cut by 100 bp in one month was back in 1982. John