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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (67909)	1/29/2001 8:58:07 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Doug, most tech companies work on a JIT system and have inventory turns in excess of 12, that is why the sharp turn happen so sudden. IMHO at least half if not more will be worked out this quarter and the rest written off ........... yes it will result in lower earnings but it will not be noticed in the financial statements, they will write it off over a year or two. It happened in 1995. For the rest of the Western world to achieve similar IT penetration as the US, they will need at least 4 to 5 times more equipment in short order (1 to 2 years) which is about the lifespan of a product in high tech. As to competition there always was and will be competition the issue is willingness to buy equipment and justify the investment, therefore interest rates are very very important, as high tech will sell more of IP, DD CAT or GM or CUM or BA do better. That is why I think AG and the FED acted irresponsible, by not lowering rates due to political reasoning and power jockeing as they knew what was developing but decided to sit on their hands. A FORD, GM, VolksWagen, Fiat or Toyota can buy more IT and interent related equipment as all the DOT.COM all thogether if their sales are comming up and the public will demand on line showrooms and JIT delivery. How about other service provider who have not entered the fry seriously like hospitals for example? or TV over telephone line in small comunities? Haim