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Strategies & Market Trends : Your Worst Trading Enemy.. You -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ally who wrote (192)	2/6/2001 3:44:29 AM
From: shawnwolff	Respond to of 223

To: Ally ..I have to totally disagree with you on that.. The first thing I want to bring up is that I strongly feel that emotions arise in all types of trading, whether you are using a long-term or short-term strategy. I personally in the last year have felt much more emotional about my "investments" than I ever have in a daytrade. Emotions in trading is a broad issue that affects everyone. No matter whether our focus in long or short, our universal goal is to make money, and that will inevitably bring hope and greed into the picture. NO ONE is 100% correct in their trading over a longer period of time, so EVERYONE is eventually faced with the issue of what to do when faced with a losing trade. And every type of trading, no matter what the time-frame, requires one to be objective and disciplined in following rules. - Shawn

To: Ally who wrote (192)	2/6/2001 4:07:27 AM
From: shawnwolff	Respond to of 223

To: Ally Re: Daytrading Without System It sounds like your opinion is that most daytraders are trading without a system... "gambling, game of chicken, Las Vegas"... yikes.. That may have been a more true in the past, in the heat of the internet fervor, as the number of those wanting to "try daytrading" with get-rich-quick dreams and no experience or education mushroomed. But I assure you, those who are trading with no discipline or system, have died off. I believe that the professional successful daytrader, those with a system, especially this last year, are seeing the greatest possible potential in the market, with actually the least risk. Holding over this last year has been a losing proposition. Daytrading, just like any other type of trading, requires one to be objective and disciplined in following rules. Any and every type of trading brings the emotions hope and greed and fear to the surface, no matter what the time frame. - Shawn

To: Ally who wrote (192)	2/6/2001 4:43:53 AM
From: shawnwolff	Respond to of 223

To: Ally Re: Predictability of Direction in Different Time-Frames <stock direction is unpredictable within the time frame of a trading day> I have to say I completely disagree with that. On the contrary, I find that the short-term movements are the easiest to predict. You said yourself: <Identifying supply and demand requires more skill than luck> Well in daytrading, we are identifying supply and demand, in a much more immediate sense. I find that the further away the time frame, the more factors that can come into that trend to alter the direction. Lets face it, ANY type of trading is based on buying something with the hope that in the future, that price will go the way you expect. We are ALL trying to predict the future. I find the immediate future to be actually much easier to predict. Let me give you an analogy.. In trying to predict my own future.. While I sit here typing at my computer, I can reasonable say that in the next 5 minutes I will still be sitting here. I can say that because I know my intentions and I can see immediate outside factors that may affect my immediate future. In predicting what I will be doing tomorrow, I can fairly reasonably predict. I know I have to work, I know things I need to do and intend to do, and I can foresee many of the factors that may alter those plans. But, there is less certainty, because there is a lot more room for those unforeseen factors to come into the picture. In trying to predict what I will be doing next year, I do know my goals and intentions. If all things remain constant, then my prediction will be accurate. But there are so many unforeseen factors that can come into the picture over the next year, that my predictions are much less clear. I find that predicting the direction of stocks is very much the same. In the immediate future I can see the immediate tape. I can see supply and demand in the current trading. I can see market direction. By next week there are so many unforeseen factors that can enter the picture, that my predictions are much less clear, much less accurate, especially in such a reactionary market. If all things remain constant and the trend continues, yes the prediction will be accurate. But the point is the unforeseen factors that can alter that trend. Taking the time frame out further, there are many more unforeseen factors. I know the intentions and goals of the company. I know their products and market, and if all things remain constant I can assume a prediction. But again, that leaves a lot of room for unforeseen variables. - Shawn