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To: oldirtybastard who wrote (62848)	1/30/2001 12:58:24 AM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 436258

The 'draft' is just a working theory. Panic Could Send Economy Into Free Fall, Analysts Say Sudden stock sell-off might start recession "Although investors' unrealized profits have fallen by $285 billion, or 38 percent, since they peaked in December 1999 -- Bianco said that because investors still had $470 billion in house money to play with, they would remain bullish on stocks. " sfgate.com

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (62848)	1/30/2001 1:18:43 AM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Another opinion on the feds control of interest rates; With the lower trending cycle in interest rates now begun, we might want to consider whether interest rate changes lead or lag economic swings. Frankly, I think interest rates reflect economic activity more than they lead it and, I believe, the Fed can only fine tune small to moderate economic swings. In the long run, it is powerless against periodic extremes of economic cycles. If the facts were otherwise, history would not show swings in the highs and lows of interest rates in 40-70 year cycles that trail both boom and bust. Hence, the oft' heard accusation the Fed moves with too little, too late. A dramatic easing means a dramatic downturn is in process. It's always been that way. gold-eagle.com