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To: micromike who wrote (9)	1/30/2001 10:41:35 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 147

Is this just a chart people move or do the insiders and insider friends know that things are finally turning around for them. Most chartists will probably tell you that it doesn't matter what is causing the move, since its impossible to accurately determine what the motivations are of of the bulk of the players in a market at any given point. GAC is thinly traded normally; my best guess is some institutional buying kicked in, or perhaps insider buying and news spread. But my guesses in these areas are really weak! GAC is a touch chart - it had been moving sideways for a number of days with little movement and very low volumes. Its not a very good stock to follow from a charting perspective, and I myself stay away from sideways consolidation zones - especially in low volume stocks. I guess a Fundamental/chartist might have an advantage - if thorough research gives you the condidence to sit out the sideways consolidation (i.e. you are pretty damn sure its not going to zero soon!), then you might take the risk. In the high fliers this past 12 months, sitting in consolidation zones was an open invitation to waking up to a big gap down one day. With the internet I wonder if there is more chart people investing then fundamentalist? I've not put a lot of thought in to this, but my gut feel is there are many more people talking and perhaps practicing some sort of technical analysis. I think the numbers who actually trade solely on charting are still very small relative to the overall population of traders and investors. I do think that many people are drawn to it because they are looking for some 'edge' or believe that it is 'easier' than the fundamental approach. I am positive that the vast majority fail in their quest, not because technical trading can't work, but because they don't conquer their own personal daemons and issues. Despite increased numbers of technical-based traders, it still works. I use some charting techniques which were first discussed back in the 30's. Doesn't seem to matter that some of these techniques have been around forever; that we all have instant access to charts on demand (instead of having to draw our own by hand!) - the techniques still work. I think the bottom line is that key swing highs and lows are visible to all players and at some level, subconcious or not, are respected and feared. The chartist simply sees these levels as big traffic lights and warning signs, and takes appropriate action, while the rest try to sort out the why's and where to's of the price action. JAM Just Another Mike

To: micromike who wrote (9)	1/31/2001 12:03:29 AM
From: Ally	Respond to of 147

Mike, >Is this just a chart people move or do the insiders and insider friends know that things are finally turning around for them.< Actually, my experience with GAC was one of the motivating factor that got me learn how to read charts. GAC's move down from $60 to $2 was not a result of chart people. It is a result of poor management, overly optimistic analysts, and post Y2K aftermath which all enterprise companies including SAP, CA, GIB and GAC. I learned from GAC's case that fundamental analysis alone is not enough. And definitely, we cannot depend on analysts who tend to only issue buy recommendations. If you recall, they had Strong Buy on GAC from $60 to $20, before they disappeared and became silent. There were lots that went on at GAC tbat we'd never know. However, we do have the chart.. which gives us a picture of the supply and demand forces on the stock. Take for example the recent run up. There are no news releases, yet the stock suddenly doubled with high volume. Small institutional brokers are buying. So they must know something that we don't. Their research analysts could have spoken to management, or checked around GAC's customers, etc. All we have is the chart, which shows a high probability that the stock has turned around and is now on an uptrend. Of course, charts are not 100% right. But without the chart, there are no news to inform us that things are changing for the better inside the company. >With the internet I wonder if there is more chart people investing then fundamentalist?< Don't know if there are more people using technical analysis than fundamental analysis, but IMO, it sure helps to know both.