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To: Boplicity who wrote (9475)1/30/2001 9:40:56 AM
From: McNabb Brothers  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
Greg,

Everywhere I read I see where everyone expects the markets to drop after the Fed cuts rates on Wed. Remember the market will do what ever it takes to make the most look like fools! So will we get that drop everyone is expecting? Staying long!

Hank



To: Boplicity who wrote (9475)1/30/2001 11:21:24 AM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
Hi Greg,

I will have tight stops myself. I am thinking about shorting the index via puts on QQQ, slightly in the money or at the money if possible, with expiration several months out.

I don't think front month expiration is the way to go here. Front-month options are an exceedingly hazardous game first of all, and with QQQ, even if you are right and there is a selloff, the odds that you will be right enough to get any kind of profit on the puts are very small. That is, the anticipated volatility in QQQ is already priced into the premiums, and the "error" in the predicted volatility is usually more than made up for by the rapidly accelerating time value decay in the option contract. So, you could buy puts, be correct, QQQ sells off, and you still lose money. This is the most likely scenario with front-month options, particularly on an index like QQQ.

JMVHO..........

WS