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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (89019)	1/30/2001 2:39:38 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, I don't have the Racing From in front of me so I can't remember the horses's names, but you'll get the drift if you have one in front of you. Based on his overall record I thought the favorite did his best running at 5 1/2 furlongs and not 6F. I thought he would clear the field again, but it looked like there was enough stalking speed in there to at least keep the pace somewhat honest. At one time Mens Exclusive was one of the better sprinters in the country. IMO he wasn't too far off Kona Gold (who has since gotten better) and Big Jag in ability at that time. He had a bit of dull period. Then he was laid off. His recent form after the layoff appeared to be improving. So I thought there was a reasonable shot he was still the same horse as prior and "could" deliver a better performance than he did last time. His form cycle looked up. Between the 6F stretch out and the possibility of better race for ME I rated him above the favorite (the speed horse) a tad. I think Big Jag is better than both when he is at his best. But Big Jag had been shipping around and running in a couple of races that he really didn't belong in. I think he was also coming out of a dull one overseas. He hadn't delivered a top level sprint race in the US for awhile. I wasn't sure how sharp he was coming into this one. He was also going to be behind Men's Exclusive in a moderate paced race. Given all the information, the horse I thought was most likely to like the conditions, be sharp, and be in position to win was Mens Exclusive. I was giving him a very mild edge. I could see how others might not agree with my analysis. However, the board made the decision easy for me. At 5-1 and quite a bit longer in odds than the other contenders, I could be a little wrong about him or the others and still show a profit long term. The odds usually tell me what to do. At 5-2 I would have passed. The contenders weren't that far apart in their probability of winning. I believe there was one other sharp horse in the race. He wound up having a very bad trip so I don't know if I was really right about him. But I rated him 4th best. I thought his one big race (on speed figures) was a little flukey. I didn't trust the number. Either the speed figure was wrong or he just had a good day. His other races weren't as good. That made him a question mark. Wayne