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To: q_long who wrote (92985)	1/30/2001 1:57:52 PM
From: Getch	Respond to of 152472

Yes, in the case of Europe, GSM markets are more saturated than younger CDMA networks. What that means is that there is a larger installed base of customers. For the GSM phone manufacturers it is a double negative. 1.) Fewer new customers due to near saturation of market. 2.) More importantly, the lack of a compelling reason to upgrade to a new phone will virtually eliminate the upgrade cycle for at least this year. In the case of U.S., the large amount of analouge still to be converted to digital will provide a large upgrade cycle base for CDMA even with the slow roll-out of 1X. The 7 million 1X chips projected to be produced by Q this fiscal year will go primarily to Asia as it has installed 1X first. Korea has completed its 1X base station upgrades, and now will move to phone introduction. The very quick / low cost infrastucture upgrades in Korea bode well for the U.S. upgrade cycle next year. The absolutely stunning statement of the week came from Sprint PCS when they said the entire cost of upgrading their system to 1X is going to be less than Verizon paid for spectrum in New York City alone in the latest auction.