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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (63071)1/30/2001 1:29:11 PM
From: sandeep  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Heinz, my problem with a bear bias is that many charts have just turned positive after a long downturn. This bolsters the case for near term strength. But your analysis of the bear market, if correct, still doesn't allow the bullishness to carry this market too much farther than this, say till 22nd Feb...



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (63071)1/30/2001 6:33:56 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
the problem is, everybody seems to be convinced the rate cut will ensure a melt-up...it's the famous watched pot, and funny enough, the Rydex bull/bear assets have people even more bullish than on the eve of the presidential election, another one of those rallies that everybody 'knew' was coming for sure...

I am not sure about that.
Even Greg M thinks we will selloff on this cut and is asking about hedge options.

That in fact has me quite concerned as I am very heavy in PUTs. If everyone thinks we will sell the news then I think we will not.

M