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Technology Stocks : ADI: The SHARCs are circling! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scrapps who wrote (2635)	1/30/2001 5:48:08 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2882

<ot>Hi Scrapps - in that case, how do you explain the Japanese situation, FDR not withstanding? Agreeing with WT, if it were a 75 basis pt reduction, I might sell everything into the rally and wait for clarification. Even if I were in the hole! I suspect many people would too. Yes, this is herd mentality, but a bear run is due to the fear of being the one to turn off the light! I think Chmn Greenspan is well aware of investor's psychology. best, Bosco

To: Scrapps who wrote (2635)	1/30/2001 6:06:17 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2882

<you WT remind me of the guy who started running when a earthquake hit here. We asked him a simple question (Where are you going?) he had no answer other than he was scared.< Please spare me the pop psychoanalysis. The Fed is trying to walk a fine line. On the one hand they WANT a slowdown. A boom as long and robust as we've had creates huge inefficiencies. Wringing them out is part of the process of keeping the economy on firm ground. The last thing that AG wants is to see a very tight relationship between the stock market(particularly the NAZ) and consumer confidence. Over an extended period of time this becomes a sort of pyramid scheme. So, freebees on rates aren't something they'd do unless they were really worried. On the other hand, the Fed is political animal and it knows that it can't risk a serious deterioration in the economy. So, they need to keep moving interest rates lower until they see signs that they are getting growth. These two things working against each other are what will keep the Fed from unexpected actions. The only reason they would not adhere to that plan is if they think things are getting out of hand(on the downside). That would be more negative than positive for the market.