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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (40179)	1/30/2001 9:25:21 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 56535

Current market psychology seems to indicate a short rally is expected if the Fed cooperates, then maybe some sideways movement, IMO. I think the day of reckoning will come when CSCO's earnings come out in early March. They are one of the last to report earnings, and it could signal a big sell-off in the techs as funds rush to lock in 1st Qtr profits. Sound familiar? That's similar to what happened last year. Funds started selling to lock in profits about March 21st, if memory serves, and the MSFT verdict came out shortly afterwards, Monday the 26th, I believe. That started the rush to the exits. The Forrester Research report about dot-coms came out shortly afterwards, and April 15th selling loomed just afterwards. This year there won't be as much selling to pay capital gains taxes, but I believe there will be selling in April. Most of the guidance companies are giving right now suck for 2-quarters and then get real nice the last 2-quarters of 2001. If we get bad earnings in April followed by downward guidance for the rest of the year, it could be a bleak 2nd quarter, possibly with a rally in the end of June. I hope everyone gets a good jolt tomorrow, whichever way you're playing. I'm straddling this Fed call with puts and calls. I'll probably get screwed either way, but I'm looking a little further down the road right now.