Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10671)	1/30/2001 7:29:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, How do you see the US$ holding up against the euro in the upcoming disaster you project? Thanks M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10671)	1/30/2001 7:49:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, do you believe this forcasted budget surplus? dailynews.yahoo.com Tuesday January 30 6:01 PM ET Federal Surplus Estimate Balloons By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The Congressional Budget Office has boosted its projection of the federal surplus to $3.12 trillion over the next decade, giving new momentum to President Bush (news - web sites)'s calls for a big tax cut. The huge new figure, which excludes additional surpluses from Social Security, adds to the political muscle that Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) provided last week to Bush's push for a $1.6 trillion, 10-year tax cut. The latest CBO estimate, contained in budget office documents and described Tuesday by congressional aides on condition of anonymity, is nearly $1 trillion higher than the $2.17 trillion the nonpartisan budget office envisioned just last July. The new projection covers fiscal years 2002 through 2011, while last summer's estimate was for 2001 through 2010. The latest CBO figure also is $670 billion larger than the $2.45 trillion surplus that President Clinton (news - web sites) projected shortly before leaving office earlier this month. His projection covered the years 2002 through 2011. Despite recent signs of an economic slowdown, budget analysts expected CBO's surplus estimates to grow because the agency envisions a healthy long-term performance by the economy. Even so, before word of the projections spread across Capitol Hill, jubilant White House aides said the new figures would reaffirm that taxes could be cut without fear of eroding budget resources needed for other priorities. ``We're seeing just an explosion in the size of the surplus,'' White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters, adding later, ``There's plenty of room for cutting taxes.'' And in comments prepared for delivery on Wednesday, when CBO officials formally present their projections to Congress, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete Domenici, R-N.M., lauded the budget's continuing strong showing. After four decades of annual deficits, the government has now run overall budget surpluses every year since 1998. ``What an accomplishment this is,'' Domenici said. Many Democrats prefer a smaller tax reduction of less than $1 trillion, and say Bush's far larger proposal would eat up too much of the expected surpluses. The top Democrats on the House and Senate budget committees, Sen. Kent Conrad (news - bio - voting record) of North Dakota and John Spratt of South Carolina, said that when also factoring in likely added spending for defense, prescription drugs, education, and other programs, the new projected surpluses would melt away into deficits. Even so, Democrats conceded Tuesday that the increased projection would help Bush make his case. ``Anytime you have a forecast for a higher surplus, that makes higher spending, an additional tax cut easier to do,'' said Conrad. Conrad and Spratt said they prefer dividing the non-Social Security surplus into three equal portions of roughly $850 billion each for tax cuts, added spending, and a ``strategic reserve'' that could be used for debt reduction, shoring up Social Security for soon-to-retire baby boomers, or other purposes. The Congressional Budget Office also expects Social Security surpluses to total $2.49 trillion from 2002 to 2011. Both parties have long called for using all of that to reduce the national debt. During his presidential campaign, Bush also proposed using some of that money to help set up individual retirement accounts. Combined, the overall budget surplus would be an astronomical $5.61 trillion over the decade. It is the non-Social Security portion of the surplus that both parties feel is available to pay for tax cuts or higher spending. Actual surpluses could prove to be below the Congressional Budget Office estimates if the economy hits a prolonged slowdown. Underlining that uncertainty, about two-thirds of the projected non-Social Security surplus for the decade - or $2.1 trillion - would come in the final five years of the 10-year period. Most economists agree that it is extremely difficult to accurately predict the performance of the economy and the federal budget that far into the future. To account for recent indications of a slower economy, the budget office lowered its estimate of U.S. economic growth for 2001 to 2.4 percent. In July, it had estimated 3.1 percent growth for 2001. Lower economic growth results in smaller federal surpluses, since the government collects less revenue and spends more to help low-income people. But the budget office expects the economy to become healthier next year, growing at a rate of 3.4 percent. And it made up for its reduction in 2001 growth by slightly increasing its expectations for the economy's long-term performance. While in July it estimated economic growth over the decade to be 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent annually, its latest estimate is for growth of 3 percent per year.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10671)	1/30/2001 9:58:12 PM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 30051

Spoke to some Macro economic Types from New York I know on on the way home today.. They think the Recession is here and the shit hits the fan in March. They expect a bad market retest Naz lows is what they are saying.. Tommorrow 50 points maybe 75.. These guys know there stuff...