SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SirRealist who wrote (30854)1/30/2001 7:16:37 PM
From: Frederick Langford  Respond to of 49816
 
Earnings warnings:

Adobe Systems $52 3/4 ($1.250)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Adobe Systems (ADBE) warned they would not meet first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .30 per share. Adobe stated they would post "below estimate" for Q1.

Chiron $43 11/16 ($2.500)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Chiron (CHIR) warned they would miss FY01 EPS estimates. The consensus for the year is .87 per share. The company stated they would post "about .85" per share for the year.

Amazon.com $18 15/16 ($1.187)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Amazon.com (AMZN) warned that first quarter revenues would not be met. The analysts were expecting revenues of $799 million. The company said it is expecting to post $650-700 million.

Applied Materials $52 7/16 $2 1/4

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Applied Materials (AMAT) warned they would fall short of first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .74 per share. The company stated they would post EPS "below estimates".

Illinois Tool Works $64.820 $0.260

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) warned they would narrowly miss first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .73 per share. The company gave a lowered range of .66-.71 per share.

WestPoint Stevens $8.740 ($0.510)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

WestPoint Stevens (WXS) warned they would fall significantly short of fourth quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .29 per share. The company stated they would miss that, posting "about .11" per share.

Sportsline USA $8 15/16 3/16

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Sportsline.com (SPLN) warned it would post a bigger loss than previously expected. The current consensus EPS estimates are a loss of .82 per share. The company stated they would post a bigger loss than that, in the range of a loss of .90-.95 per share range.

Estee Lauder $38.900 ($1.550)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Estee Lauder (EL) warned they may miss third quarter estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .25 per share. The company stated they would post .23-.25 per share.

Lamson & Sessions $11.100 $0.280

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Lamson & Sessions (LMS) warned that they would not meet first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .36 per share. The company stated they would miss that, posting in the lowered range of .22-.25 per share.

Nokia $35.280 ($1.710)

Whisper
Discussion

Nokia (NOK) warned they would just fall short of second quarter estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .20 per share. The company said they would post "about .18" per share. They also lowered the number of phones that they were expected to sell. The consensus estimates were 550 million, Nokia stated that would be in the range of 500-550 million.

Universal Forest $13 13/16 ($0.187)

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Universal Forest (UFPI) warned they would just miss first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus estimates are .25 per share. The company said it would post in the .23-.25 per share range.

Mylan Labs $23.420 $0.080

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Mylan Labs (MYL) warned they would fall short of fourth quarter estimates. The current consensus EPS estimate is .38 per share. The company issued a lowered range of .30-.33 per share.

Arguss Communications $10 $0.560

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Arguss Communications (ACX) warned they would miss fourth quarter EPS estimates. The consensus EPS estimates are .15 per share. The company said they would miss that, posting a breakeven to .02 per share quarter.

Transocean Sedco $44 1/4 $3 1/4

Article
Whisper
Discussion

Transocean Sedco (RIG) warned they would drastically miss first quarter EPS estimates. The consensus estimates are .21 per share. The company said they would post .00-.05 per share.

Fred



To: SirRealist who wrote (30854)1/30/2001 10:04:56 PM
From: Bryan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 49816
 
Well, you know me. When I get pessimistic, it ain't for peanuts.

I would not get concerned as long as the NASDAQ stayed within the range that it has witnessed this year so far on a closing basis. It's quite possible that we will retest the 2290-2300 area but that would be fine as long as it ended up confirming a strong level of support. My fear is that people will buy the whole way down and ultimately end up puking their long positions, and consequently create the wave of selling that will yield a break of the year-to-date low, and subsequent test of longer term support at 1890-1900.
*See chart of 1998 reaction to Fed rate cuts.
members.aol.com
You can see where the Nasdaq 1900 level comes into play.

Remember back in '98 when the media and the economists doubted the FED's ability to lift the global economy out of the rut created by the Asian financial crisis?? Everyone and their mother was scared to death of the ramifications of a global recession. The Nasdaq tanked nearly 20% after the first rate cut, but then rallied back hard, never to look back. The capitulation that took place in the broad sell-off helped to fuel the rally that did not die until March 2000.

I was kind of hoping that we would have seen a similar reaction this time around. Unfortunately, the FED caught everyone by surprise, and we got one hell of a knee-jerk rally after the Jan 3rd cut. And since then, the Nasdaq has been relatively stable, with an upside bias. History never repeats itself perfectly however. Do we tank after the second rate cut this time?? Well the media would sure love that as that's all they have been harping on.....Recession, YES! should be their damn slogan on CNBC.

But hey who knows? I have a ton-o-faith in AG and Bush. From a long term investor's perspective, it's hard to look at the current situation knowing that aggressive rate cuts and fiscal stimulus are in the pipeline, without wanting to "load the boat" or "back up the truck" on every dip. Think about the privileged few who lightened up last year in technology. They are accumulating now. Anyone with cash on the sidelines is accumulating now. Easy money policy and tax cuts will make the pool of available funds for investment larger in the coming Q's.

These are a few of the things that rallies are made of.

Best
-B