Love from Spain.Updated Tuesday, 1/30 for Wednesday's Market
Key DOW Levels for 1/31
UP Current Trend
DN Through 10,775
Blast Off!
We launched off the pad today, reaching our upper channel
target (daily chart) of 10,900. Should retrace, short
term.
From yesterday's commentary, "..You can see in the 15
Minute Chart that we consolidated at the extreme end of the
range. This gives us our action levels for Tuesday - at
10,695 (dn) and 10,725 (up). I would trade the break and
hold your mental stop at about 10,710 (the midpoint)....
Our "stance" is Long with protective stops at Dow 10,620;
NAS 2,800; and OEX 703. After the fundamental information
released by the fed is digested, I would expect resolution
- and probably to the upside...."
Yahoo! What a day. All I was hoping to get was a hundred
or so, from the break of 10,725. Boy, did I underestimate
that one or what? On to the top of the channel in the 60
Minute Chart, at 10,900. Awesome.
Of course, the last bar of the day was down, and it is very
reasonable to assume that we will see a retracement
tomorrow, but clearly, we are on our way to 11,250 - having
broken the blue trendline with great force today. We are
moving our mental stops on our Long from 10,575 up to
10,775 - as marked.
Short Term Dow
Banzai! It's rare to see such a straight move. We just
stayed right in, all the way to the Close. An amazing
move, intraday.
Now, for tomorrow, the course of action is obvious - we
want to fade any retracement and wait for the first
V-bottom to form. I have received quite a few emails
asking "What should I trade, from your Dow page?" The best
way to use this page is to establish symbols that, in your
opinion, are poised to move up or down. Then, as the
market itself moves (which should be a retracement
tomorrow) you want to trade individual issues in the same
direction.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we definitely lost our mushiness from
the last few days. Now, we want to see if the new move
holds above the line at 10,775. Odds are, of course, that
it will. If you are not Long yet, I would wait to see how
tomorrow fares. Yes, you could miss some more of it but
I'd hate to see you enter overnight Longs and get clobbered
in a retracement. What we want to see is a pullback and
consolidation, then enter at the low of the consolidation.
NASDAQ Composite and
OEX (S&P 100)
Yesterday's comment was, "The NASDAQ is forming an
expanding triangle in the 15 Minute, which will only be
bearish if the lower boundary at 2,675 is crossed.."
Obviously, it wasn't, and we got a nice upward push today.
The great news on this index is the consolidation in the 15
Minute Chart, implying a move on to 2,900 or 2,950. ** I
have moved mental stops up to 2,825 on this index.
The OEX is also bullish, and has cleared the upper boundary
of the consolidation in the 60 Minute Chart. That's good,
but it didn't clear by much. So, we want to be wary of a
pullback into the channel. If we cross 720, buying with a
stop at 717 would be very appropriate.
In Summary:
Obviously, being Long has paid off. Now, we want to start
our "normal" process of managing the bull, in stair-step
fashion, moving stops up behind it. Tomorrow, I'd look for
a Dow retracement, a NASDAQ breakout to the upside, and a
consolidating OEX, with upside bias.
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LINKS TO CHARTS:
Dow 15 Minute Chart
signalwatch.com
Dow 60 Minute Chart
signalwatch.com
Dow Daily Chart
signalwatch.com
Dow Weekly Chart
signalwatch.com
Legend
signalwatch.com |
