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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (63522)	1/31/2001 12:59:39 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Joan: You are not missing anything. You are correct about the European view. Europe is fed up with the U.S.A.'s "abuse" of its sole reserve currency status and wants to see the Euro established as a second reserve currency to curb that U.S. misbehaviour. Unfortunately, it would be very costly for Europe if the dollar caved precipitously, as they hold tons of the semi-worthless toilet tissue and need to find a way to somehow dump it quietly before values tank. How to do this? It won't be easy. The other problem is that the U.S. has been the "buyer of last resort" for every country's goods over this last two years. The rest of the world can see a slowing U.S. economy and is more than queasy about a globe bereft of bubbly U.S. consumers. This means that other jurisdictions will have to "accomodate" (to some extent at least), any U.S. needs. I expect we will see other jurisdictions reluctantly pulling rates down. For me, Germany is the key. If Zee Germans beg off, Big Al is in a heap of deep doo-doo. No interest rate differential equals a weak buck, and weak bond markets (which are crucial to the U.S. economy). Greenie is on a tightrope stretched across hell. Best, Earlie