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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3208)	1/31/2001 5:38:08 PM
From: Stoctrash	Respond to of 33421

Good stuff Tim, thanks!!!

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3208)	2/1/2001 5:45:18 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Tim, How are you doing? That was a good read! I think we get a breather dip here. Cohu announces tonight after the close.Probably weak sales with poor visibility (at least 1 of the 2 or both). I'm thinking it will create a good short term buying spike?? Bob

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3208)	2/1/2001 7:56:45 AM
From: J. P.	Respond to of 33421

Tim, I think your Nasdaq chart is flawed because it's not logarithmic. You have to account for the fact that a move from, say, 1000 to 2000 is equal to a move from, say, 2500 to 5000. They are both 100 percent moves, that's why they have log charts. Just my opinion, I'm wrong a lot so take it for what it's worth.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3208)	2/1/2001 2:47:08 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

The Economic data continues to present a picture of weakness. Construction Spending Construction spending +0.6% Nov revised to +0.2% from -0.6% Residential spending edged just 0.1% lower and was the weak spot. Commercial spending rose 0.8% to leave an impressive 13.8% rise from a year ago. A 1.5% rise in public spending provided the power after back to back declines. Annual growth has weakened to 2.5%: -3.2% residential, 0.1% rise in public spending and strong 13.8% rise in commercial spending. Initial Claims Initial unemployment claims 346K (+32K) Continued claims +14KTwo week rebound of 42K after prior 2 week drop of 76K. Faulty seasonal adjustment suspected given reduced seasonal layoffs after reduced holiday hiring. 4-week average fell to 327K from the highest since 1998 in early January. Initial claims 4wk average is up 17% from a year ago. NAPM Index NAPM 41.2% -- weakest since March 1991. Eleventh consecutive decline in NAPM with downward momentum continuing. A sixth consecutive month of sub-50% levels as the manufacturing recession worsens. Key new orders and production components (55% of NAPM) fell below 38%. Prices paid index rose to the highest level since May, further damaging the sector's bottom line. Manufacturing stability will follow (lag) overall economic strengthening by a number of months. Personal Income Income 0.4%, Spending 0.3%, Savings rate at -0.8% Smaller 0.2% rise in wages and salaries as other income sources (farm, rental, dividends) bulked the gain. String of 3 strong declines in durable goods spending offset by upturn in service spending. Savings rate (savings/disposable income) rose slightly to -0.8%. Trend 0.2% (2.4% yoy) PCE price rise, core up just 0.1%. ---------------- of course yesterday's numbers did not look good save for the housing numbers, the last bastion of strength in the economy: Chicago PMI Chicago PMI 40.2% -- matching lowest level since 1982. 18 year low as regional manufacturing recession worsens. Both production and backlogs also fall to 18 year lows. New orders fall but hold above Nov's 38.9%. Prices paid (inputs) rose but below Oct level. Continued weakening in manufacturing and autos, consistent with plunge in Phil Fed index. Bodes poorly for the national PMI. GDP-Adv. Q4 GDP 1.4%, chain-weight deflator 2.1% Personal spending slowed to 2.9%, but deceiving given downward direction throughout the quarter. Personal spending composed of strong service spending and a decline in durable goods (autos). Decline in business investment most disturbing given link to productivity growth, first decline since 1992. Equipment and software spending fell after a two year growth pace of 16%. Inventories fell off slightly, large correction due in Q1. Government spending rose 2.9% after Q3 decline. Decline in residential investment less severe than Q3. Net exports provided a smaller drag as imports edged higher and exports fell. GDP price deflator rose 2.1%. Price pressures tame. New Home Sales New Home Sales surge 13.4% to 975K. Huge 13.4% surge follows downward revision to Nov. Size of increase very suspect, faulty seasonal adjustment suspected. Midwest and Western sales growth of 22% and 38%, respectively. South and Northeast fall off. Advance counters drop in NAHB index and late Dec dive in MBA purchase index. Price movement is volatile. Median Dec price plunges 9.8% to leave -6% annual growth.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3208)	2/1/2001 2:57:10 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

the broader markets are finally showing some signs of life. Looking at the chart of the S&P 500, we would note that the index recently pushed through resistance around the 1360 area, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September to December bear market. Trendline resistance has also been broken, as has the 100-day moving average. In addition, the 14-day RSI failed to confirm recent lows, while the MACD is flashing its strongest buy signal since August. Still we need to see the SPX break through the .382 level and I'd like to see 2 consecutive closes above 1405.