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Technology Stocks : AWARE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KHS who wrote (1876)	1/31/2001 6:01:56 PM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2404

KHS, As an AWRE short I will tell you that I did cover quite a bit today simply because this is a "hit and run" environment for shorting. I do not see AWRE's fundamental bounce back in the second half although the stock may bounce. The "second will be better" has been a prominent cheer in almost every disappointing conf call I have been on this month. AWRE has company specific issues that will not go away in 2H01. I have spoken of this issues before. 1)AWRE is tied to ADI. My guess is that 90% of their royalty revenue comes from ADI. 2) ADI's ramp was largely due to the build out in Korea last year. This country is now 25% penetrated with DSL and the chipset sales in that country will not go back up. 3) ADI has been losing designs for one year and only now have the design losses shown up in meaningful market share losses. This mkt share loss thing has been hotly debated on this thread but look at Globespan's positive guidance vs AWRE's flat to down guidance. I think ADI's only meaningful ramp will come with ECI at Deutsche Telecomm. 4) I do not believe that Intel will deliver a chipset with AWRE. It has been well over a year and each time I ask Intel folks at dsl shows about the chip they increasingly know less about it. If you want exposure to DSL since it will be a growth market after this hangover, I suggest you pick up a bit of Globespan. AWRE mgt is smoking dope if they don't think Globespan is the leading independent DSL silicon player (Alcatel is not independent, too bad). I think they may also have a tough qtr or two in front of them but they 1) have gained tremendous market share 2) have a leading position in SHDSL (for T1 replacement) as well as ADSL and 3) will expand their silicon presence in DSLAM and CPE devices with a more integrated chipset in the near future. I own a smidgeon because it is not cheap and I think the next Q is a bit at risk but 3 years out, I think they have the best chance of owning the space. That is unless Broadcom buys Centillium (I am hoping for Intel to do this). Best Regards, Bobo