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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PMS Witch who wrote (47667)	2/1/2001 12:51:46 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

PMS, So the question becomes "When will the world run out of idiots?" I believe, a few months ago, you've posted as close an answer to this as one can reasonably expect, given the fogginess of crystal balls --- When the boomers decide to enjoy their gains. As a cynic, I must believe that people will anticipate the boomers bailing so it will happen much sooner than we expect, such as a bottom of Naz sub 1K and Crisco in single digits in 1-4 years. Not what you would expect if you were counting on the boomers, but maybe the lucky ones bail early and retire and the bagholders are stuck working an extra few years and their anticipated retirement is delayed. BWTFDIK? chic [BTW- Don't like the name. I feel like a sexist addressing you as PMS. At least I'm an NBA announcer as an alias. -ggg-]

To: PMS Witch who wrote (47667)	2/1/2001 12:07:40 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi PW, you're welcome. Thankfully, the world will never run out of idiots. Indeed, the recent bull run has had the wonderful side effect of increasing the supply of wealthy idiots to record levels. This is like a gift from heaven. Unfortunately, I think the demand for idiots will soon outstrip the supply. Or more precisely, the supply of idiots who still think they have money. It may take 12-18 months to complete the wealth transfer, and by then we will be back into a more rational market. I have not modified my view regarding the relative prospects for massive investment gains in big-cap growth stocks. These represent an oxymoron waiting to happen ;) As to boomers and enjoying their gains, my theory is a bit more subtle. We won't remove gains from the table. We aren't that wasteful we'd spend it all, nor do we love cash. But we will TRANSFER gains from Growth into Value and later from Value into Income. This first transfer is well underway and indeed I think it began in earnest about February last year. As to the option game being a "recent discovery" - no, the rules have always been there. Lots of previous discussion, but it was premature: the denial crowd doesn't respond well to theory. Most of it goes over their heads and they merely spout gibberish in retort. They have to be kicked in the head with facts before they listen. Now that facts are on the table, it's easier. Still nearly impossible for some of them... but easier. Cheers, John. P.S. CSCO has been a great investment over the years. You were quite correct to hold with a PE of 19, because at that level its price should increase at or above its real economic growth rate - which would be 30-60% per year. But once the PE creeps too far ahead, the economic growth rate must catch up. It can do that in only two ways - both of which undermine it's potential as a "good investment" going forwards. Which is why I currently have no position.