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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (68191)	1/31/2001 11:10:20 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You have to ask yourself, "Why haven't the markets sold off in the face of all this bad news"? There's a hole in the bucket.

To: KevinMark who wrote (68191)	1/31/2001 11:17:28 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

KevinMark: The bottom line is, so many people on this thread have changed their opinions on a weekly basis from bull to bearish, and bearish to bullish so many times, they don't know what the hell is going on. I have held my original stance all along, and nothing had changed. I still remain bullish till mid-March. Make sure you are not interpreting the trading of shorter-terms swings with someone's medium-term expectations. Most important, remember to keep it cordial and respectful.... Regards, LG

To: KevinMark who wrote (68191)	1/31/2001 11:51:03 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

Kevin, thanks for the nice words. AS for the improving internals, I would agree with you, they have, they always do during rallies (whether these are bear market rallies or bull market launch), in bear markets rallies, they simply turn back at lower levels. It is quite possible that they have reached their "local" peak this morning. Note that since the January low we have had only one day (that was January 3rd itself) where the Naz tick was more than 1000 (we had another day like that on the NYSE), for this to be a real bottom, we should have had more such days in the last month. I think that the breadth is artificial and the advances are heavily concentrated in small cap issues that have had a horrendous tax selling season. The trend ($TRIN) is a better indicator of true breadth, and it has not been stellar. Just my observation, of course. Zeev

To: KevinMark who wrote (68191)	2/1/2001 3:52:56 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"You have to ask yourself, "Why haven't the markets sold off in the face of all this bad news"? Why? Because the demand for securities for the past three weeks has been greater than supply." How about- the Fed printed some more money so institutions could go more heavily into debt to purchase securities. It's all being done on borrowed money, other than that everything looks fine. The response time of the market to interest rate cuts is slow. The 1% drop in Fed funds in the last month may still be too late to stop the cycle of declining sales and earnings. How many people here are going to go out and buy a new PC next week because interest rates were lowered? The most immediate effect of the rate cut will be inflation due to weakness in the dollar imo. M.