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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (28801)	2/1/2001 6:01:23 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Kelvin, Thanks for trying to clarify the data, but their response confused me even more than before. Here is the data: Probability of a 25 basis point easing in interest rates. Month Yield Probability February 5.460 16% March 5.310 76% April 5.020 192% May 4.960 216% June 4.920 232% July 4.765 294% I read this to mean there is a 16% chance that the Fed will cut rates 0.25% by the end of Feb. There is a 76% chance that the Fed will cut rates 0.25% by the end of March. There is a 294% chance that the Fed will cut rates 0.25% by the end of July. I guess anything over 100% is definite, but nobody can say that the Fed will definitely cut rates except the Fed, and they probably don't even know yet. Not trying to beat a dead horse, but the data is flawed. I could see a 99% probability, but anything equal to or greater than 100% doesn't make sense. The part about 50 basis points makes no sense at all. Thanks again for contacting whoever published that data! PS to Paul: Thanks for your comments about the Excel program. You're very welcome! I enjoyed writing it. Besides, I'm always on the lookout for a job, and you never know if a recruiter might read the thread and see that I can indeed write software. lol PSS to Nemer: Thanks for your kind words as well.