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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (126435)	2/1/2001 2:17:28 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 186894

Kap, I think that there is a potential for EPS collapse in Q1 because of higher capital expenditures in the CPU business and lower revenues in the "other" businesses. There were some posts on the Mod thread about the interpretation of Intel guidance for Q1 (nobody on this thread is apparently interested). Anyway, IIRC, during the CC, they said that overall revenues will be down 10-15%. But at the same time, the "other" including networking related areas would actually grow. If you add this up, then the microprocessors are expected to drop even more than 10-15%. So is your expectation that the MPUs will go down more than 10-15% as Intel predicted, but the "other", rather than growing in revenue, will go down? I have no idea how all this translates to EPS. When I listened to the CC, I had n impression that Intel left itself some leeway in the guidance for things to turn slightly worse than the real expectation, and still stay within 10-15% decline. Joe

To: kapkan4u who wrote (126435)	2/1/2001 2:29:15 PM
From: Windsock	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

KalKan - Re:"I think that there is a potential for EPS collapse in Q1 because of higher capital expenditures in the CPU business" Capital expenses have no effect on earnings. They are made from the cash that Intel has on hand and will continue to earn -- no debt or interest required. Only later when the facilities begin production will depreciation expenses impact earnings. Of course, at that time the production will generate revenues and profits that will more than offset the depreciation You are so stupid that you are dangerous.

To: kapkan4u who wrote (126435)	2/1/2001 3:45:09 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Kap, I also heard that P4s are not selling, but this is hardly news for anybody. P4 reduces the allure of PIII, yet few seem to want to buy P4 either. Who is the beneficiary of Intel's latest engineering and marketing debacle? Scumbria

To: kapkan4u who wrote (126435)	2/1/2001 3:54:03 PM
From: fingolfen	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 186894

As a frequenter of other boards, this really sounds like a post that should almost go on the Yahoo! board rather than the SI board. All of your posts seem to be long on hype and opinion, but short on facts and documentation... I think any significant earnings warning from INTC this quarter will be far more indicative of the economy as a whole rather than INTC's performance or the PC market specifically. Looking back at Q4, INTC made reduced numbers, AMD missed reduced numbers. AMD also indicated that it would only sell ~6 to 6.5MU this quarter, but would produce something in the neighborhood of 8MU... that's building up an instant 20-33% inventory. When the economy goes South, EVERYONE suffers. If you're shorting Intel, you should short AMD for the same reasons. Right now the entire semi industry seems to be hit with overcapacity. Intel is using a novel approach to deal with it in converting early to the large P4 chip. Greater availability of the P4 in the marketplace will provide added incentive to optimize software for it using the SSE/SSE2 extentions. Greater software optimization will allow the P4 to rapidly outpace the performance of the K7-series and P3 series chips. AMD won't have a performance equalizer until they release the 'hammer'/K8 series chips which also (not I think coincidentally) offer an 18-stage pipeline and SSE/SSE2 extentions. One other important fact to note. During the last semiconductor downturn (1998), Intel cut capital spending to the bare bones. The net result of this was they were not prepared for the upturn in late 1999/early 2000, and they not only left a lot of money on the table, but left the door wide open for AMD as well. This time around Intel seems to be investing into the dip and looking for cost savings elsewhere. I therefore think that Intel is going to be prepared for the next upswing in demand and will not be caught flat-footed again...