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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XenaLives who wrote (2788)	2/2/2001 7:53:43 PM
From: Scott H. Davis	Respond to of 52153

One TA principle that is helpful in determining entry & profit taking points is overbought & sold. J used moving averages. I use 3-4 indicators that are conveniently supported on SI. Any one gives too many false signals, sp I look for confirmation. RSI > 75, stochastics > 80, Bollinger band upper violation are overbought signals that in tandem are a pretty good indicator. The higher the relative value, and the longer the condition exists, the more likely it is to retrace soon. Good time to take profits, or sell with a goal of accumulating more, cheeper. Bad time to enter. Reverse that and you have oversold. Seriously oversold, unless the fundimentals have shifted or a real adverse event has taken place, is a good entry point, or re-accumulate. Williams %R is also good to look at - deals with the liklihood of a retrace when it goes to the extremes. Here's the REGN example. siliconinvestor.com As far as a retrace point 50% is the conventional retract after a sharp move (some regression, but more to a MA than a mean) So I visually looked at where the runnup started, and thought that I could realistically expect a retrace to 32. Helps you overall return to buy at the right time & take profits when indicated. Seriously, the NAZ & most of the stocks had unsustainable levels in Feb/March. looking at historic levels & TA, I exited to about 90% cash. Actually exited too soon (like VICl at about 50 rather than than 70) but I re-bought a lot cheeper. Like ADIC in the 11's, which I accumulation traded a couple times in the 20-25 range. Bought more chares + picked up some CELG curtesy volitility. My broker didn't mind either. Hope this helps. Scott (just sharing a principle that has worked for me. Future specific situations I'll post on Paula's thread. Paula, if this ws helpful, feel free to cut & paste or like as u c fit)