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To: Paul Shread who wrote (41922)	2/2/2001 3:19:47 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 42787

Paul, what I find interesting is that there is a dominant assumption now that earnings will pick up the 2nd half this year for most "name" tech companies....what I find challenging, however, is that most of these companies were reporting blow-out quarters until fairly recently...certainly thru last calender 3Q, but some in this past 4Q as well....so the y-o-y comparison will not get much easier for many until Q1 2002.. What I think the market will grapple with over the next couple months: are things REALLY going to get better (earnings) by the fall? (certainly, sequentially yes...but what where will the market price a stock like Cisco in the fall if they get back to 40% y-o-y growth, but are still below 50, 60%+ that investors are used to...what is the new PE/PEG on such a stock?)..what about younger, newer highflyers whose growth may get cut from 100% y-o-y to 80% y-o-y? I do find it a bit scary that even up until a month, month and half ago, even Chambers thought Cisco would continue the torrid growth of the past....if Chambers, one of the best CEOs around, can't accurately forecast (who can?)...so, do we really believe all the predictions of 2nd half greatness being thrown around? Aren't these just guesses? (from the same group that didn't see THIS slowdown coming).. I may fall back on my original thesis: Maybe the Naz won't really pick up (again) until we see the (earnings) light at the end of the tunnel...right now, its pure speculation as to when earnings will recover...

To: Paul Shread who wrote (41922)	2/2/2001 3:30:46 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, With a CLASS 2 BUY signal, there is still a possibiity of 1-2 more down days to the CLASS 1 level. Those last days of selling can be some of the strongest down days. Im not saying Im expecting it, just mentioning an observation.