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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63234)	2/2/2001 5:02:55 PM
From: PAUL ROBERTSON	Respond to of 116756

George, i believe the Greenies and the Bushies of the world are about to get severely tested on all fronts. In fact, i believe a meltdown of unbelievable proportions has begun. A meltdown so sever that it will take a panicked fed from a hyper deflationary situation to one of hyper inflation. A very hard down S&P, greenback and long bond market are at hand. The Hong Kong and Japanese markets may very well start off an unbelievable market week next week. Everything from Bob Johnsons humble neutrality to Yorktons recent capitulation on gold spec plays {imagine throwing your hands up in the air after several years of outright bullishness because the local in house PHD says "i surrender"} Ski on Kitco is about to go into sell mode, Don W. and Mike D., two of the very best market timers in my books are jumping up and down over gold and are completely opposite on their stock market views. One thing is for certain, if we get above the $275-80 level over the next little while as i think we are about to, gold will be on a run as, i believe, we have never witnessed before. This is one of the rare times in ones lifetime that a huge money making move may be anticipated, not for next year or month but right now. Paul

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63234)	2/2/2001 6:50:31 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Why would a severe or prolonged recession help gold? Isn't gold substantially demonetized? Or do you just think that it will be the falling dollar that will help gold's dollar price? I bought some gold stocks as a hedge for a falling dollar and because I consider them very undervalued in general, but I don't see how a US recession will increase gold demand. This is not the thirties when gold was money, so a deflation by definition helped it. Kyros

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63234)	2/3/2001 3:45:55 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 116756

George: I have no quarrel with the general view you put forward. But I do try to remind myself of the role played by foreigners in the US market -- and the current account deficit is a pressing reminder. Servicing the current account deficit in the US is a remarkable feat even with goldilocks smiling down on us. I don't know that we need as dire a predicament as suggested to reverse the trend on gold -- simply an inflection point. We are slowing down from 5th gear on a road with "no speed limit" to first gear on a bumpy dirt road -- its very hard on the whole system and I think it is enough to make the current account deficit really tough to service when that giant sucking sound -- the sound of money being sucked into the US from abroad -- may soon end. I think the suction is being lost as we speak -- and gold could be a beneficiary. Combined with short covering, a move towards actually buying gold and gold stocks would be a real shock in one of the most oversold markets ever -- the gold market.