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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (86127)	2/2/2001 7:26:53 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 95453

OT RE: post # 86127. For the sake of the truth, please replace "anyone" with "any guy." Sorry. Ed

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (86127)	2/5/2001 12:54:09 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Phillips/Tosco play.... Phillips with the ARCO acquisition was positioning itself as a helluva E&P play with tremendous cfps & eps growth upside - but, now acquiring a refiner - which is an "antichrist" market subsector; has me wondering what they are thinking ? They surely would inherit a lower multiple going forward etc... I'm not a Tosco follower; must be some hidden value & synergies that the intital market reactions are missing - hopefully something LT NG related that may bring LT value to the surface that the analysts are missing here ? One is allmost tempted to buy "P" on the blow off - hoping to acquire it at a great discount here; with the thought in mind that the markets reaction to this move will force "P" to withdraw. Yes; ... not a bad time to go back to the "margin" well... imo; we have so much more info to act upon : 1. Fed has cut twice & the bond market & "reality" dictate more to come... 2. OPEC announced production cuts ....I said it was getting to be "Driller-Time" and lets see if we can sneak that March to April/May Oilpatch Rally in under the Q-1 Tech reporting / Risk window... o/t Don - re: ADCT - simply read the covering analyst reports... this is a simple straight forward play; having ran right thru the april 2000 Tech wreck without missing a beat; its balance sheet & cash position, it's market niche; diversified customer base etc - make it no more complex that it is... a true cutting edge tech stock that is now also a "Value" stock a baby thrown out with the telcom bathwater - no more, no less... no need to get crazy; just a nice stock to own & build a position in - in this environment and a great, great potential 3-5 year LT hold. I'm adding on each significant pullback $13-15, $10-12 if seen, $8-9 if seen etc & we should see an intermim potential bottom if CSCO guides more negatively that what is allready priced into Champers earlier comments in Osolo... I'll nibble on the tech-no brainers; but doing so - slowy and on an "Average In" basis - gaping entries fairly wide. I like CSCO INTC and ADCT as my 3 main plays; PMCS back to $60ish, or lower is certainly enticing and I have a 10-15 name shopping/watch list... tech & the NAZ will see a bottom off of Q1 reporting, or by Q2 reporting at the latest imho; so this is a great "average in" environment now; given the Fed's commitment to literally print & buy our way out of another recession... but; you still have to watch unfolding economic events & global trends. Europe remains fairly strong & is only 10-12% exposed export-wise to the US Economy; the markets are seemingly shaking off Japan's continuing downward spiral etc... I don't think anyone has to be any more sophisticated than to "slowly average in" to tech here; buy initial positions in the CSCO & INTC's at 2500-2700; add a bit more at 1850-2000 if ever seen and have a cost basis near that NAZ 2250ish range - which given the continual market prop jobs & intervention/rescue by the Fed looks like a bottom; with the only caveat being a quick unforseen downturn in the global economies. I feel a lot better beginning to "Average In" with 2 Fed Cuts totalling 100bps "allready" at my back than I would have by trying to "catch" the December freefall... that was not good risk vs reward investing in my opinion and CSCO & INTC may both end up being able to be bought cheaper here than in December... no one missed anything in the Oilpatch, or in Tech by waiting for more market information & for the Fed Cuts to be put in place... C'Mon PGO - give me $10 today.... kollmnh & deafwhale must still be buying ? $12 PGO is a chip shot & $14-$16 looks "do-able" in this "March to April/May" move...not bad %returns on margin...;) Sure hope threadsters rotated out of the NG E&P's and caught "Driller Time" here; as well as the later-cycle Service names... PS S : NR was my other laggard play; I'm done accumulating it... anyone else get NR here on this secondary/private placement pullback ?