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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (63253)	2/3/2001 6:31:57 AM
From: d:oug	Respond to of 116764

...not make $350 when folks see all the potential production back in the pipeline. Bob, Please let me parrot something i read at that cafe you have on your list of shady places of bad & evil & ill repute. Your comments about the price of gold being capped at $350 when it become profitable for those shut down or idle or ignored gold reserves in the ground going back on line and pumping out physical gold. Yes, if gold was something like oil that is required for consumption. If the price of gold does increase it will not be because it is "needed" like oil, but because it is "wanted" as a store of value with a history long and deep that guarantees it use as a store of value into the far future. As someone at the cafe said using fiat money as an example. "... know anyone who does not want more and more." One can never have too much money or wealth a.k.a. gold. Who will suck up most of it? Probably nations and governments who seem to obtain unlimited supplies of paper money either by taxing their citizens too much or simply using the printing presses, and to use this example imagine the usa trying to buy all that Fort Knox physical gold they "lost" using the method of trees + ink + glue = paper dollars. If so, then inflation a.k.a. worth of usa dollar decreases and if gold is traded in usa dollars, then it price increases and increases... $35,000 usa dollars per oz. :o) doug

To: goldsheet who wrote (63253)	2/3/2001 10:23:19 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

There is a good chunk (do you have an estimate?)of what could be called "back on the radar screen" ounces that will be a true reserve at sequentially higher prices. IMO those reserves may not be developed (at least quickly) because the poor financial condition of the majors may not allow it, and because operational talent is not easily available to develop and mine it. I'm not so sure that there will even be a rush to hedge reserves at higher prices either. So there could be a pretty substantial time lag present in the price elasticity of gold while capital and labor recoups. A good recent model of this is the energy business. There is a backlog of targets, but it's tough and expensive to hire crews and lease equipment. In fact those components are just not available. It appears there has been a quick little unsustainable blip in output initially from some existing fields, but then that fizzles because the basic energy infrastructure can't support it and needs to be retrofitted. That will take several years. For an in depth analysis see Marshall Adkins (Raymond James analyst) work; stockhouse.com Further because of the heavy handed "hearing footsteps" manner that gold has been leaned on and I believe manipulated, there may be a particular industry specific hesitation to make new production commitments even at 300-350. I'm seeing a different set of issues in the resource equation that's different from the past. The whole "New Economy" mindset has effectively gutted and neglected the entire resource sector. And now it's time to pay the piper. That's why I see this as a stronger, more sustainable move than most observers. I also see gold as having the potential to create MORE demand (unlike other commodities)at higher prices because it could become a speculative instrument. It is the type of asset that historically has captured the human soul in incredible ways. I often think most people just need a green light on this one. If you doubt it, read Peter Bernstein's The Power of Gold, "the history of an obsession".

To: goldsheet who wrote (63253)	2/3/2001 10:43:24 AM
From: robingrayson	Respond to of 116764

New economic gold will be found at $200. This is true of placer gold mining in a large number of countries: Russia Mongolia North Korea Indonesia Phillipines China parts of Africa parts of South & Central America Some limitations on its development are: a) large number of smallish projects, often too small for international banks and major companies; b) too many, too small, too quick for most junior gold companies; c) where organised large-scale (Russia & Mongolia) bank system is weak and interest too high ofr project finance d) most other countries the bulk of production is from unlicensed artisans, and smuggled e) most is in remote locations f) gold recovery is often as low as 40-60% but profitable nevertheless In spite of these and many other limitations, placer gold deposits can be brought into production very rapidly indeed (weeks or months) and 'high-grading' is much more practical that with hard-rock mining. Nobody knows how much gold is produced by placering in the world. It does not suit the Governments, banks or large gold producers to do the arithmetic. "Gold in them thar hills" is now largely only for recreational gold, the big serious stuff is tropical jungles, remote steppes of Asia and Siberian swampy forests. Look at placersoftheworld.bizland.com for some examples If anyone knows of a study that estimates world gold production from placer mining, and the scale of smuggling of gold, please inform this board! Robin Grayson General Director Eco-Minex International Co Ltd emiweb@magicnet.com