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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve who wrote (19812)	2/4/2001 4:01:55 PM
From: Ron Ohio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

I believe the next major move in the market will be down. I concur with Buck who stated that the past lows will be tested. My reasons: 1. Most major downturns have had double bottoms. 2. The January counter trend rally has run it's coarse. 3. Normally a three-move change in the discount rate of 1/4% (3/4% total) would rally stocks. We've had a 1% change and it doesn't effect the market. 4. Even a tax cut if implemented would take an another 9 months to kick in. 5. The stock market has removed over a trillion dollars in wealth. 6. What Greenspan can't control, as I've pointed up before, is that energy costs have skyrocketed and act as a huge tax against the whole populace including the lower income who are normally taxed very little. a. I know people who drive the ~90 miles from Moreno Valley and Hemet into LA every day. They are being creamed with gasoline costs and home heating costs. It looks like their electric will be the next to go up. b. In Ohio we've had the same increases in gasoline prices as has most of the country. In addition our gas heating has at least doubled. Our excellent insulated home has had a year to year increase of $122 to $248 per month. Again think of the poorer homes with no insulation. We had people in church that have had $300 to $400 bills. There will be far less spendable income for some time. It will takes years to overcome this countries poor energy policies 6. Talked with an owner of a real estate firm and she stated that home sales in North East Ohio the last 9 months hare been putrid. She also points out that repos in the high end and mid range homes have skyrocketed in the last few months. Could it be that some of the lost wealth in the market is coming home to roost? With selectivity there are probably a few real good buys in the market. If they perform they will move up. I believe that IDX fits that bill. You have the feel that everything is coming together and everyone on this thread knows it. That doesn't mean it couldn't slip a little in another downturn. Ron