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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader X who wrote (41865)	2/3/2001 4:12:07 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

Some interesting thoughts concerning 300 mm AMAT & NVLS from the Yahoo NVLS thread: First hand observations are usually better than second hand inferences Asia is re-tooling... by: banzai_ux (51/M/Austin, Tx) 02/03/01 04:50 am EST Msg: 13578 of 13586 For the crowd that think the world is ending.. thank goodness your wrong. Just back (full dose of Jet lag) and this is what is going on. 200 mm fab capacity is rolling off, but 300 mm fabs are spiking. Samsumg, UMC, TSMC, Toshiba, Chartered ...all are increasing spending for 300 mm. This time next year we will be sampling the 300 mm products. What this will do is place a "ton" of pressure on the rest of the industry to close rank. The 300 mm orders are being placed, deliveries start in the Q3/01 to Q1/02 time frame. The Q1 warning from Applied is very interesting since this is not the case at some of the other tool companies. What I think is more interesting is that they claim "business conditions" have had such a strong effect on q1 as receintly as Nov. Their reason sounds fishy, since the orders to delivery cycle in this industry are at least 7 months, (for the very best customers longer for others), it is not possible that the "orders on record at the Nov update" could have any effect on q1 revenue. What I would guess is AMAT has not met shipping, and final delivery sign off's (Nov. goals) . And now under the new SEC rule, this pulls some of the revenue off of the table that they were counting on. It is an execution to BP miss, not demand. However, from the announcement it sounds like they are pessimistic overall... why say that?. Also, what I find even more interesting is Needham&Co then upgrades them from "buy" to "strong buy" the next day (1/31/01), following their "slowdown" message. This is the same group of stupid people who go out and "down grade" the hot performers (NVLS, KLAC during last year as they were > doubling their business revenues in 2000). It seems to me that Needham is acting as somebodys tool. Anyhow, NVLS is taking over the CU market out there......and AMAT is trying to fight back, we'll see....stay put.