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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader X who wrote (11262)	2/3/2001 11:34:24 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12039

day at a time is great, but it's good also to create a longer term hypothesis based on the evidence at hand. It's a given there will weakness near-term, the only question is how much. Do we get a new low, or a new uptrend? I greatly enjoy developing medium and even long term thoughts on the direction of various markets, but when it comes to planning and executing a trade, I dismiss all that. I sell failed test of tops and retracements in a trending decline, and buy failed tests of bottoms and retracements in a trending advance. So until a test of bottom occurs in a time frame and market I'm trading in, I can only be short or flat. My sense is that money and market want to go up, but will wait for proof. Personally I think new lows would be much more exciting.

To: Trader X who wrote (11262)	2/3/2001 11:39:18 AM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

It isn't entirely inconceivable that the INDU, SPX, etc., will move back down to the middle or lower Bollinger bands -- or, all indicators aside, that they'll go back to the middle or bottom of their trading ranges -- for no other reason than the fact that they do it all the time, that they move up and down in waves of buying and selling. But as you say, the question is: How far down this time, and do we get a new low or a new uptrend? Is there anyone who can answer that? I tend to doubt it. Maybe some Elliott Wave analysts could weigh in here, and make some predictions. You'd probably get many possibilities, many different views on which wave we're in now, many interpretations of the waves, many predictions, a lot of ifs, ands and buts, some provisos, qualifications, limitations, stipulations, etc. The Upson Downs Hypothesis is the best I can do. I wouldn't be planning on a quick bounce, and rushing to buy Monday or Tuesday on weakness -- not without tight stops at least. That would be buying at the beginning of a move down, right after the first sell signals were given. There might be some good buying opps. in some sectors, though, such as energy. But whatever. S'all alchemy. Where's my astrolabe? Or at least: It's all money management, as Dick Brown said.