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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68443)	2/3/2001 11:51:38 AM
From: briskit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

See if this gives any perspective. stockcharts.com

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68443)	2/3/2001 12:06:04 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephen, the way I interpret this is that the VIX is touching the lower band of the channel and is expected to bounce from there, when the VIX goes up, the market (particularly the Naz) has a tendency to decline, thus "fasten your seat belt". Market bottoms often coincide with "local Max" in the Vix, it is not the same with local minima in the Vix (namely, making a local minimum in Vix does always show a turn for the worse). Since the Vix seems ready to turn up here (rather than continue down, bouncing from the lower Bollinger), we have a little way to go to the next Vix maximum, where when reached, should be a good point to get back in on the long side, IMHO. Zeev

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68443)	2/3/2001 12:31:39 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 99985

The hammer off the bottom band would indicate a trend reversal to the upside on the VIX. So as fear (VIX) increases the market decreases. Looks like a clear signal pointing down early in the week. Some fear factors next week: 1) Last week's ugly economic reports 2) Israeli elections Feb 7 and CSCO earnings (warning) the same day. 3) If some of the banks got real long here on margin anticipating a quick turn in consumer sentiment from the two rate cuts and now it didnt work, then it could be a quick scramble to unwind some trades -g- US patriot missiles were dispatched from Europe to be in Israel by tomorrow, I guess just in case the natives get restless on the Ariel Sharon (hawk) projected victory. My bet is that Bush/Cheney/Powell are scheming a plan to free up some oil reserves in Iraq and cant wait to finish the job this time. They will let/lure Saddam into setting his own noose imo. Clinton spent 16 hrs a day for the last two weeks of his term trying to get a peace agreement, but Bush has decided to wait and see rather than engage in any discussions. M.