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To: mishedlo who wrote (64488)	2/3/2001 12:08:20 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

big wakeup call coming next week

To: mishedlo who wrote (64488)	2/3/2001 12:48:02 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

"Why should QCOM be rising anyway? Look at NOK, ERICY, MOT etc etc etc. Perhaps I do not understand QCOMS revenue stream but do you really see surges in new phone sales?" Qcom's revenues are going to increase for a few reasons. 1)They are at the beginning of a new product cycle. they are selling chips called 1xrt that will improve network performance by operators by 3X. Those chips will also allow manufacturers to reduce cost by 20% and allow consumers longer battery life and 115K access as modems or phones 2)The world is slowly evolving towerds 3G which will be based on Qcom IPR technology. IE The pie overall may be shrinking but their share of that pie will increase substatially. There were 400-500Million handsets sold last year and only 80million are CDMA. If the market stays constant or even declines by 10% and Qcom increases % of market it will do well. Especially with higher cost higher margin chips 3)NOKIA has just yesterday tasitly admited it cant make 1xrt chips, it now sub-contracts them to TELSON in Korea, whom is a liscencee and IPR payee to QCOM. MOT has been Qcom largest growing customer for the last year. 4)Qcom Makes an HDR chip that will provide 2-3mps data without wires, GPS chip wich will provide navigational ability to Cell phones like cars have. 5)As it seem's the overall market for Mobile is declining because of MOT, ERICY AND NOK I would question that reality with the fact that ASIAN manufacturers like KYOCERA have maintained good outlook, and growth prospects. Maybee the issue is that ASIAN manufacturers are finally kicking some EUROPEAN ass. Ericy handset biz has been a disaster for years, and NOK will have a hard time competing against the JAPENESE whom are great at building consumer electronic gadgets. 6)QCOM Management doesnt talk trash, they tell you they have something and it will be done by a certain date then it usially is. They have promised a GSM/CDMA and TDMA/GSM chip. I would bet they will beat others to market cause they've done it so far. Look I am not saying that mobile phone sales will not slow, I dont think they will slow that much because they are more a nessesity in other parts of the world that have lousey phone infrastructure. They will also allow many countries a cheap way to build out Last mile and other internet access stuff. I am also not saying what Qcom stock should or shouldnt be worth, couse I havnt a clue. I do know at 70 or so it is neither cheap nor expencive. If there is a stock that is more like INTC/MSFT in the 80's then QCOM i dont know it. If one owns one high flier I couldnt think of a better one. As a note in an inflationary outlook Qcom would benifit because they get royalties based on ASP of phones. Though I would assume sales will slow. A deflationary spiral would hurt Qcom more then an inflationary one. Plus they have no debt and 4 Billion in cash.