Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68465)	2/3/2001 2:18:23 PM
From: briskit	Respond to of 99985

A friend at MerLynch told me at 2500 to sell, the Naz is done for awhile. (I asked him why he didn't tell me to switch trains at 5000 ggg). Their site calls 3300 or so the ceiling here,according to him. I would like to see some parabolic charts that managed to make a nice comeback in this short a time. The COMPX is just that with tons of people leaving. Why jump right back in? Take the inuts or most of the tech leaders that created the huge run. It's going to take mega money coming back in to perk them up, and the COMPX as well. That's more than a little viagra, baby. Lynch is not the only party pooper, I guess. I'm not buying anything expecting to hold it til Mardi Gras. I want a little something left for beads!

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68465)	2/3/2001 3:01:07 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Stephen: I'm not sure that my own perspective, or the perspectives of others, are completely contrary to the perspectives of the various bulls in the media. It's certainly possible, for instance, for the Nasdaq or for the broader market to pull back rather deeply, even to or beyond the early January lows, and still have a good year. I suspect more than a few of the money managing prognosticators are partly depending on the historical reliability of the January indicator (good January = good year). Otherwise, as I think you know, the vast majority of them have a multiply conditioned long-side bias. As for the people who post on this board, a lot of them seem very intelligent and well-informed, but they often disagree diametrically. The worst decisions I've ever made were based in part on letting selected message board opinions reinforce my hopes and prejudices. Anyway, I'm constitutionally incapable of believing in, executing, or accepting an easy make-your-bet and "walk away from it" strategy of any kind, and I gave up on l-t investing, or even mid-term investing, or even trend-trading, a while ago, and don't yet feel any great urge to re-considere my stance, so I don't share your worries about missing out on the next big move, though whether the market starts to trend up or down remains a significant consideration, of course. I personally consider the the utilization of margin for anything but very closely watched trading to be a dubious and dangerous practice. It's been shown that investors and traders routinely underestimate the importance and frequency of unexpected price shocks on their portfolios and performance. Every indicator, expectation, intuition, and belief can be perfectly lined up - and then some wacko orders his army across some ill-defined border, and the whole house of cards comes down, or, it just so happens that your beautiful unfairly beaten-down four-letter stock has been fudging numbers or some kid falsifies a press release or whatever. Of course, it all comes down to your personal risk/reward tolerance and expectations. If it's play money, then play, and why worry? Otherwise, I'd hate to be among those who you blamed or thanked for your results. Even in the latter instance, it would just mean that the next time, when I happened to be as wrong as formerly I appeared to be right, you might pay back double whatever you gained from listening to me the first time. So please ignore me when I say that, for the short term, I tend to expect continued pullback and a re-test on the COMPQ first of the Easing Day highs, then quite possibly of the January lows, amidst at least partial restoration of high volatility and exanded ranges, but I'm also trying to prepare for the alternatives. In the meantime I see a number of stocks that could break up OR down (or even both) rather dramatically, and I'm searching for low-risk entry and exit targets. I'm confident that many traders and investors with longer time horizons will do a lot better than I will, but that others will do a lot worse, and that, next time around, large portions of each group will be on the other side while, I hope, I'll still just be plugging along.

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (68465)	2/3/2001 3:35:17 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephen for people who dont trade as brillently as LG and others its very frustrating not to be able to invest long term. I am a stock picker, I like to find Gems and then sit and be patient. This market is very frustrating. The fundimentals are deteriorating and stocks are at the values were they were in 1999 when the FA has never been better. Stocks are now as overvalued in regards to forward earnings as they were at the peak of the market. I now trade a litlle and try to get 8-15%.Its really no fun. When in history have all the so called CNBC guru's been right? The COT is still at record short position. Guru's or COT? Ill take the COT.