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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (17722)	2/3/2001 4:23:27 PM
From: Stocker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi Pat, A "considerate reply" for a considerate post. That's more like what this board used to be like. Yes I do sound contradictory. Let me explain. From what I have read of Cramer's writings, he's been saying to stay away from tech in general and telco equipment stocks in particular for some time. His argument is that fears of a slowdown will crimp any gains in these stocks until the demand picture clears up or the stocks just get too cheap. He argues buy financials instead because they historically see more immediate improvement from rate cuts and they'll gain without being nearly as volatile. That's a 6 month call to me. In terms of his shorter-term, day to day focus, I was referring to his former role as a hedge fund manager. You said he had switched positions on JDSU as the momentum went from up last summer to down in the fall. Well again, the point I try to make is that's what he was paid to do. If the market or individual stocks turned, it was his job to catch the changes and take those trades. In JDSU's case, he's only changed focus once since summer. BUT, for other stocks, he's changed much more often, daily or even to the minute, as they went up and down, news came out, etc. Again, that's what he was paid to do. Hedge funds play the game all ways. Long or short some stocks for the long-term, but long or short stocks day to day as well. In fact, his fund was big on position trading where they would hold a long-term core position a stock like CSCO but also buy and sell the same stock in small increments day to day as a way of reducing the cost base of the core holding. That type of flexibility is what his writings have reflected. I should have been more clear. One thing though, he has been consistent on JDSU these last few months in saying stay away, just as he was consistently long the stock for much of the huge run it had. I don't think he could have played it better. Yes I agree with him but only because his argument has made a lot of sense to me. That certainly hasn't always been the case as I was loading up on NT in the fall of 1998 just as he panicked and made a sell call on the market. Still, he's been very right since.