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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (46577)	2/4/2001 1:10:32 AM
From: maverick61	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

As far as Fed easing plays - here's what to look at: First off - I should clarify that most of these are not short term trades - as I have noted before. These are intermediate term holds until we get to a point where tech earnings start to turn around which likely won't be to fall - so on many of these, I have a 6 to 9 month perspective - which I know is different from the trading nature of the thread - but for a portion or one's portfolio, makes a lot of sense IMO Financials - yes, many have run up in anticipation of fed cuts - but if you time your buys rights, many are still a good buy. Look to money center banks, super regionals, or select "bad" banks that can't help but be helped by a fed ease. Brokers - Similiar story, and I am talking the big, full service ones - not the online discounters Cyclicals - Look to big DOW names like Alcoa and International Paper. they typically do quite well in this type of rate cutting environement. Others - Agaian, sticking to the DOW names, GE on valuation in this environement makes sense to me, MO even after its run last year, still yields over 5% in dividends (which will look increasingly attractive with each fed cut) and has a Kraft IPO upcoming, HD or Lowes make sense from the construction angle Retailers - most have run too far for me - so I am holding on this sector - but plays like WMT, KSS, BBY, TGT, CC could make sense on pullbacks these are the companies that benefit from rate cuts - not techs who have decreasing visibility, inventory backlogs and poor outlooks for the next 1 to 2 quarters. I wouldn't count on telcos either - just because they have lots of debt doesn't make them a great fed easing play. So, IMO from an intermediate term portfolio perspective - I would reiterate 1/3 diversified like those noted above, 1/3 tech names (I have an eclectic mix here of what I consider value or speculative) and the rest in cash for trading opportunities. And of course, I also have my shorter term port that I use exclusively for swing or daytrades.