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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (30412)	2/4/2001 6:34:26 AM
From: Jimbo	Respond to of 65232

lurqer - tanks for the post on the COT - I am a subscriber of Option Investor. They are always harping on the postion of the large commercials being short - this analysis hopefully describes their current position.

To: lurqer who wrote (30412)	2/4/2001 8:51:16 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Well nothing like a little dip to get the bears growling. <gg> As stated in an earlier post, they do have a point. This is the first test of the Jan 2/3 low and hence of whether the 2000 downtrend will continue. And the more coherent bears can provide reasonable ideas as to why the downtrend "should". I'm trying not to be pathological (as /jw would say), but at this juncture I'm not buying the continuation argument. Low enough to frighten? Yes I'll accept that. Far too much bullishness in the sentiment numbers. But the monetary climate has changed - not just the Jan. rate cuts, the Dec/Jan liquidity pumping. Whether the bears like it or not, the monetary backdrop does make a difference. So here's a ST guess (I view all ST predictions as guesses). We dip a little lower. Something like this additional chart from Stock Attack (from taLuis) geocities.com (I like those Fib. arcs.) This should dampen the bullishness. Then a "grinding" rally back to (and maybe slightly above) our recent highs. This will get the chartists excited because we'll "have successfully tested the low". Then, just when many are starting to feel comfortable, we get the "real" test. That way the market "traps" bulls and bears. A sort of mini double top rally within a larger double bottom context. JAG (AG = a guess) BWDIK (proven very little) lurqer