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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (6925)	2/3/2001 8:04:37 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196511

EriQ, hasn't Sprint got 1xRTT loaded into their system now and now selling and doing very well? Maybe I'm confused by definitions of what is and isn't cdma2000 and W-CDMA. I thought NTT is supposed to have the first W-CDMA network and it's not ready for a few months yet. When you write <complete forward and backward compatibility across GSM, GPRS, EDGE and W-CDMA networks for voice and data in 161 countries and on 400 networks>, I don't get it. I thought A GSM phone wouldn't work on a W-CDMA network whereas a cdmaOne handset will work on a cdma2000 network. Maybe you mean multichip phones or multimode with an ASIC containing all those modes - a bit like a dual-mode GSM/CDMA phone does give compatibility, but isn't really what I meant by backward compatibility on CDMA networks. As ASIC, radioOne and other technologies develop, the cost of compatibility will go down and single devices might well work in a wide range of situations without undue cost. But for now, multimode costs a lot and the compatibility problem is that old handsets won't work on new networks. Maybe we are at cross purposes here. Irwin Jacobs did say that the cost and architecture of dual mode cdma2000/W-CDMA handsets wouldn't be prohibitive [a couple of years ago]. That was during a CDG internet presentation. On GSM becoming obsolescent, I think analogue, TDMA and GSM will all go the way of the Dodo very quickly once people get Internet connections available at low cost via 3G, 1xEV, 1xRTT or whatever it is. GPRS won't be good enough though. Analogue has now gone in Australia. In NZ, it will soon go with the rollout of Telecom's CDMA in a couple of months though they claim it will be available for 5 years. I have no idea why anyone would still want to use the analogue network five years from now. GSM is really just a voice system [SMS is a transient fashion to be replaced by bing-bong messaging and email when the new phones are available]. Voice alone is not enough. GSM will go sooner rather than later. The idea that 3G systems will be delayed in Europe [or anywhere] and the worries that there is no market is amusing. The bidders paid a lot because they know it's a huge opportunity. They are still bidding high [Noo Yawk was 5 times the NextWave price per pop and people thought that was absurdly high - now they know it was cheap and that's what was obvious way back in early 1996]. 3G is coming, soon and fast. Mqurice PS: I also thought I could retire now and you could take over the ranting - your style was familiar too! Plagiarism!

To: Eric L who wrote (6925)	2/3/2001 8:27:30 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196511

<Backward compatibility for all 12% of the worlds wireless subscriber base with cdma2000> When the USA analogue subscribers convert to CDMA, the % will increase quickly. CDMA is growing quickly elsewhere too, so in 3 years, there will be a LOT more than 12% using CDMA wanting forward compatibility [backward from the network point of view]. 435 million GSM total = 62% 80 million CDMA total = 12% 701 million world total Graph of world subscribers: gsmworld.com Other statistics: gsmworld.com I am surprised that CDMA monthly sales haven't yet overtaken GSM and it confirms yet again for me that the world moves very slowly to new things, even when the advantages are substantial. Capacity is the dominant advantage of CDMA and now that spectrum value has been laid bare for the world to see, we can expect more rapid moves towards getting the most out of that expensive spectrum. While 12% is not a large proportion, there is no point making things worse in any way than needs be. W-CDMA doesn't confer any advantages and does give disadvantages, so it remains obvious that dog-in-manger marketing is the driving force of W-CDMA. That 12% will be more like 20% in a couple of years. Mqurice