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Biotech / Medical : Incyte (INCY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1680)	2/4/2001 1:23:52 PM
From: Nikole Wollerstein	Respond to of 3202

"What's the growth rate in the janitorial business?" For the fiscal year ended 10/31/00, revenues rose 11% to $1.81 billion. Net income applicable to Common increased 12% to $43.8 million. Revenues reflect new business, price increases and acquisitions

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1680)	2/4/2001 2:30:20 PM
From: smh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3202

INCY... the Rodney Dangerfield of BTs who aspires to become the "Cisco of Genomics." Torben, my view of INCY is similar to your own. More importantly, it is my sense that there is a consensus amongst SI Biofreaks reflecting the same mind. <Decide what you think it will be and discount it to arrive at a net present value> Ah... back to "first principles"... much too obvious. Actually, I don't recall ever seeing the exercise attempted (perhaps someone can point it out if I've missed it). Its a bit beyond me (devil in the details), but if you want we could try to get the ball rolling and see if there is interest. I have to admit, starting with the 30,000 royalty licenses reminds me of Carl Sagan's classic deductive monologue leading to the conclusion that extraterrestrial life surely exits, given the 'Billions and Billions" of existing stars. Below is a patchwork of thoughts from recent posts on this thread, which gives the appropriate perspective, IMHO. --------------------------------------------------------- "The issue is not whether there are any [drugs in clinical development]; the issue is what percentage of drugs will be royalty-bearing for us," says Whitfield. He said Incyte now has 30,000 potentially income-generating licenses, which he said are "a huge part of the future value of Incyte." zeneca estimates ½ of pipeline will pay royalties to incy ...is this not the problem... INCY's royalty agreements are being ignored. Worse yet, recognition of this value seems to be nowhere on the horizon. As always, perception is everything. From the SSB bullish report... Incyte may also receive milestone and single-digit royalty payments from database collaborators who successfully develop products using the company’s databases. To date, Incyte has garnered over 30,000 royalty licenses. Although highly uncertain, these payments could become a significant source of long-term revenue. In the future, as much as 25%-50% of new product introductions may be based on genomics-derived drug targets. Incyte’s pharmaceutical partners control over 75% of worldwide drug R&D. ... Although not in the drug development business, Incyte’s 30,000 royalty licenses can be thought of as call options on drugs developed by its subscribers. Incyte stands to collect low-single-digit royalty payments (e.g., 1%-2% of revenues) on drugs developed based on information in its databases. However, this source of income isnot expected in the next several years. Good suggestions which address the stock price's main problem: future earnings are opaque. Maybe even to INCY. --------------------------------------------------------- If, as suggested by INCY, trial initiation milestones were to start in 2001, their number should increase rapidly thereafter. I would hope that what is now opaque would at least progress to translucent. SMH