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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68531)	2/4/2001 1:03:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George, I see the Naz around 3000-3150 by late April as well, after a powerful almost 50% rally from the March 9th low (which right now, I have that one at around 2200-2300, with only a small probability of a breach below 2200 to 1900). If we do breach to 1900 on the Naz, my late April scenario is for 2650/2750 as the April highs.Thus we are not that far apart. However, starting in the second or third week in April, I see another spill ending around May 8th to May 12th (May 9th, is my current "forecasted low"), and my guess is, that decline will be stopped at around todays levels, possibly 100 Naz points below (2560 to 2660). That gets us to "Mid year", where my visibility is getting obscured, not knowing the details of the tax proposals on the table, their likelihood of being passed and of course, how far the Feds would have gone by then to reduce interest rates (March 21st and May 16th). The picture may also change if the semi equip BTB goes under 1.00 and then makes a bottom there, which, IMTO, will be a signal to move to the bull side for a good stretch. My expectations are that that might happen in the May/June time frame. If that is what happens, than the yearly low in the Naz will probably be set in the March through which is coming in few weeks. Zeev