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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2591)	2/4/2001 12:58:21 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15481

Lizzie, I hope you're right. I think however I'd rather err on the conservative and be pleasantly surprised. I'm just taking a more pragmatic view these days. OG

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2591)	2/4/2001 3:43:55 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Respond to of 15481

Cramer is saying he sees a total of 3 pt rate cuts by the fed in order to stem this recession. That would put rates back to where they were in the early 90s. If we get that then I predict 5000 on the naz in 2002. I think 3 pts of rate cuts (the 1 we have already seen plus two more) are a distinct possibility.....but we won't see them all at once. Only if things stay in recession mode will we see them at all, and that will mean more pain, especially on the Naz. The Dow and the S&P are not that badly wounded yet, and I think we would have to see that before Greenspan starts spending the rest of his rate cut ammunition. Those early 90's rate cuts culminated, I think, around 94 or so. And the market that year was listless....it was really two or three years later that the real party began. So even if you see a lot of rate cuts quickly, Naz 5000 will not necessarily occur in short order. JMHO.....longer term, I would not be surprised if we see Naz 10,000 at some point before the year 2010.