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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (11978)	2/4/2001 1:24:32 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78481

Hi everybody, I'm back from the cruise! Had a great time, spent a lot of money, got a nice tan and plenty of rest. Some thoughts I have on CRO....I ran it through my spreadsheet and it doesn't look good to me. Even if I discount PPE(and I'm counting the timber and timberlands in this total)by less than normally do...I usually discount PPE by 50%, but here I'm discounting by 30% because large tracts of land seem to hold their value....anyway, even allowing for a higher value percentage of long term assets, I get a negative NetNet value because of the huge LT debt. I ran across an interesting way for me to get a feel for Free Cash Flow, and have incorporated it in my analysis spreadsheet. I'm starting with the change in cash and adjusting it for investing and financing results that are either discretionary or non-operational(a la Hackel in "Cash Flow and Security Analysis"). By this formulation, I get a FCF of negative 9.7 million. Until the fundamentals of this company improve, to me buying it at these levels would be too much like trying to catch a falling knife. Just my 2 cents. Timba