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To: Lucretius who wrote (64565)	2/4/2001 2:15:16 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

Productivity advance look? STOCK QUOTES Enter symbol(s): Lookup symbol NEWS Top Financial News Top World News Stock Market Update After Hours Trading Technology Politics Economies Fed Watch Columns STOCKS Tech Stocks Stocks on the Move Chart Builder World Indices Movers by Exchange Stocks in the Dow S&P 500 Snapshot Industry Movers Most Active Options IPO Center Regional Indices RATES & BONDS Key Rates U.S. Treasuries Government Bonds Municipal Bonds CURRENCIES Currency Rates Cross Currency Rates Currency Calculator EMU Update COMMODITIES Most Active Futures Commodity Movers Energy Top Financial News 02/04 09:51 Productivity Growth Rate Probably Slowed: U.S. Economy Preview By Vincent Del Giudice and Marco Babic Washington, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. productivity growth probably slowed in the final quarter of 2000 while holding at a pace to keep inflation in check, analysts said. Productivity growth of 2.2 percent at an annual rate that analysts expect in the fourth quarter would follow a 3.3 percent pace in the third quarter and 6.1 percent in the second. The Labor Department issues the report Wednesday. Workers are producing more for each hour on the job because of business investment in computers, robotics, software and training. Productivity growth has been above 2.5 percent in the past three years, compared with 1.5 percent over most of the last three decades. ``Productivity is still a force to be reckoned with,'' said Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in New York. ``Long-term productivity gains of 2.5 percent will keep the U.S. on a fast track in terms of world growth.'' Federal Reserve policy makers, who lowered the overnight bank lending rate a full point in January to guard against a recession, are counting on worker efficiencies to keep the economy expanding. Advances in technology and gains in productivity ``exhibit few signs of abating and these gains, along with the lower interest rates, should support growth of the economy over time,'' the central bankers said in a statement Jan. 31 announcing a half- percentage-point drop in the rate. Measured year-over-year, third-quarter productivity showed the second-largest increase in 17 years, rising 4.8 percent, Labor Department figures showed Dec. 6. That was close to the 5.3 percent rise in the second quarter, matching the largest gain since the third quarter of 1983. In other reports: -- Consumer borrowing through credit cards, auto loans and other personal installment loans probably increased by $9 billion in December after rising $12.9 billion during November, analysts said. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the report Wednesday. -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits probably rose to 350,000 in the week ended Feb. 3 after rising 32,000 the previous week to 346,000, analysts said. The Labor Department will issues that report Thursday. -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers probably increased 0.4 percent during December after rising 0.4 percent in November as consumer spending cooled, analysts said. The Commerce Department will issue that report Thursday. Bloomberg Survey Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior 2/7 8:30 4Q Productivity 2.2% 3.3% 2/7 8:30 4Q Unit Labor Costs 3.3% 2.9% 2/7 15:00 Dec. Consumer Credit $9B $12.9B 2/8 8:30 2/3 Initial Jobless Claims 350K 346K 2/8 8:30 Dec. Wholesale Inventories 0.4% 0.4% 2/8 8:30 Dec. Wholesale Sales 0.4% 0.0% Federal Reserve, Treasury Wednesday, Feb. 7 Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow speaks on ``Productivity and the U.S. Economy'' at a meeting of the Chicago Chapter of the National Association of Women Business Owners. ©2001 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

To: Lucretius who wrote (64565)	2/4/2001 6:07:11 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Here's a lovely bed time story for you Luc that I found over on bearforum-- <<Re: Too many "bears" will be bullish early Posted By: tz Date: Saturday, 3 February 2001, at 11:43 p.m. In Response To: tz, something new WILL happen and it (dinosaur) It happened in 1929-30, but it will be different this time, at least in speed. And the average investor won't be "trapped" so much as it will be over before he can react. He is watching now, seeing the gathering clouds of depression, layoffs, bankruptcy, yet still sings along with the echoes of the promises of wealth on the NASDAQ when the dot-coms come back. In 4/30, the Dow was back at 295, up 100 (about 50%) from the bottom in 12/29 and things looked like it was over but that was the top. In fact people who thought the market was overvalued and avoided the crash got caught in the grinder. Many who didn't got caught in the bank failure or gold confiscation. They weren't prepared for what was coming either. Even those who didn't buy on installment credit. Or perhaps "Black Thursday" is/was a better example. The thursday before the crash, the small investors were destroyed, but everyone thought it was over. It was a big intraday drop that was reversed. Friday was up a bit. Saturday I think was slightly down. Then Monday and Tuesday each had double-digit drops. Thursday convinced many bears that the crash already happened and was over. As I've posted before, 7000-7500 is only the first stop. A sharp spike down will create two things. First, many hedge funds will go bust, but this won't be "news", and people will be buying this "dip" because it will seem so severe. It got worse but can't get any more worse. It will precipitate a rally, maybe to 8200 or even higher, but the liquidation (which will cause illiquidity) will pull things back through this level. Bears, and conservative investors who got out will jump on this final dip. It will be an ambush more than a trap (if by trap you mean something that holds someone or something inside). There will still be a huge hole in the balance sheets that will be bigger than this buying. This may be over a few hours or a few days, which is what I think will confuse people. This drop will merely be a RESET TO SEPETEMBER-OCTOBER 1998 when we were a bit stronger economically but still at the precipice. And interest rate cuts won't work any more. Anyone who wouldn't go long back then shouldn't do so if/when it reaches the same levels (unless they trade intraday). But memories are short. 5200 was a reasonable target back then but it isn't now - too much more wealth has been destroyed. This will be the big crash. The PC industry had descriptions like "The orders stopped as if someone turned off a switch". Back in December there weren't the announcements of layoffs. Look how fast it happened (and how silly - junk bonds are back - maybe because they are thought safer than stocks?). One of my alternate long term counts still has 1998 as the GSC peak, with this as a huge B wave (at least in the dow). That would make this at least a cycle C wave, which will go farther and faster than anyone thinks. 1987 was a C wave two degrees smaller. You are also right that it will be international, but I noted the trigger might be anything. Or (as I probably didn't make too clear in my post), we may already be in an unstable region where the cascade will accellerate and there is nothing that can be done. Assuming things stay peaceful, countries will blame each other for the mess. The other countries will be trying to get back their underwater instruments in a devalued currency. You will have the luxury of even cheaper material goods - the deflation will be incredible. Consider how many people won't be able to make care payments. More relatively new repos will be on sale than ever before, but no one will have money to buy, much less afford insurance. This excess supply will cause prices to crash (in comparitive terms - long ago I posted that deflation is not neutral, toys deflate more than tools, which deflate more than (staple) food, ... more than gold). I suspect these cars will be 5-10 ounces of gold. I don't know about dollars since I expect the USD to lose value rapidly along with this. Some of this will take time. There is a lag between being bankrupt and declaring it legally. No one will be smiling. No one smiled during the Civil war. No one smiled during the '30s and WW2, and few during the '60s. No one plants or harvests during the winter when the ground is frozen. The euphoria of the mania will be replaced with the disphoria. Prechter pointed out that Dracula and Frankenstein were depression movies. "Blue Skies" was the #1 hit of 1929. But there is one large difference. Some people will be secure through this winter. Others will be dependant on them. >>