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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (46604)	2/4/2001 2:58:26 PM
From: Simon Thornington	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

For my monthly or bi-monthly point of view :) I am still short-term bearish, and still intermediate-term bearish. Rande's comments were right on the mark; the shorts are in control, and rate cuts aren't going to change that in the short-term. The rate cuts are giving immediate relief to the credit squeeze, and possibly saving some of the telcos and infrastructure companies from bankruptcy. They won't, however, have an effect what is shaping up to be a dismal string of earnings. That said, the market has gone down enough that truly exceptional earnings will be rewarded. I believe, however, that merely good earnings all the way through horrible earnings will result in sell-offs. I haven't decided whether I believe that we are going to enter into a full-fledged recession (possibly coupled with inflation to boot), or just an extended range-bound period of multiple compression. However, given that I consider those the two scenarios to choose from, my course of action is still to short pops and cover fast. I do not feel comfortable taking any equities on the long side. I am long corporate bonds and foreign bonds, for the narrowing spreads and falling dollar, respectively, but all my other longs are investments, not position trades. Buy and hold. If anyone is interested in specifics in what stocks I am working with, please PM me, I'd rather not post them here. Lastly, something less related to trading and more to this thread. I've had to read the posts here less, because they seem to be getting very repetitive. Some people, no names, will make three posts out of ten, effectively saying exactly the same thing and mentioning exactly the same stocks. Others will refute them, with exactly the same arguments, multiple times. I'm afraid I just don't have the time to follow 100+ posts a day, when most of them are reiterations of what I already know the posters' positions to be. Just my 2 cents. Infrequent poster, Simon.