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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gruetz who wrote (1626)	2/5/2001 1:18:54 AM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1860

Hi Gruetz: I am better disposed towards the BW companies like LVLT, GX, and WCG because they are all towards the end of their network building phase, while WCII and XOXO are still about mid-way through their network buildup. Also, LVLT, GX, MFNX and WCG are facing weakened incumbents, while the RBOCS - the CLEC competitors-- are still financially very strong. With respect to the ``bandwidth glut,'' while it may look like this is the case right now, I don't believe this will remain the case. There is a confluence of interests (like Intel that wants to be able to sell more powerful microprocessors, BRCM/STM/CUBE that want to sell settop box chips, MSFT with bigger and more clunky software) that will push hard towards computer and TV based applications based on streaming video. If this is the case there will be an order of magnitude jump in network traffic similar to the effect of MP3 on campus networks. In other words ``build it and they will come'' looks reasonably well justified in this instance. Best regards, Bernard Levy PS: I notice your analysis relies heavily on DCF projections. This is fine, but it looks to me like these computations are very sensitive to interest rates and economic conditions. Just look at how quickly these computations have changed for TGNT.