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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (38923)	2/5/2001 11:36:14 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Metcalfe's telephone network model assumed one-to-one communication. With the Internet, not only one-to-one, but also one-to-many, many-to-one, and many-to-many communication(s) occur among many sets of people. Necessarily, moving from one-to-one communication to many-to-many communications increases the number of potential interactions. Thus, it must expand the exponent beyond the square. Not only that, Internet communication extends beyond human communication: many devices with embedded systems talk to one another or to many others. Therefore, the exponent of growth in network effects is not limited to a fixed exponent of 2, but may have larger exponents. Actually, Metcalfe's rule is based on the number of possible connections which has nothing to do with whether on communicates one at a time or many at a time. In reality, of course, it is rare that any one individual would reasonably communicate with all of the other nodes (evidence of the circulation of some jokes on the Internet to the contrary). I don't think this is crucial, however, since the value is still likely to increase exponentially.

To: Don Mosher who wrote (38923)	2/6/2001 3:57:34 AM
From: JAPG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Don, Network topology, rate of growth and acceleration/deceleration of the rate of growth are only part of the equation. In US circa 1980, fixed telephone network topology was already established, and almost everybody was connected. The network was growing slowly and in the TALC curve we were in the laggards phase. If I was a patent lawyer at that date, I could pick up the phone and call any patent office in the world and any other patent lawyer I wanted, also they could call me. The network had been established: the connections and the nodes were there. Also the primary NE were there, any new patent lawyer that got connected to the network added value to the network. The other part of the equation, not very much talked about, are the “Network Efficiency Effects” NEE. In a fixed size Network ( 0 growth) NEE adds value to the individual members of the network in 3 ways: 1)By adding content to nodes. By content I mean information and new applications that leverage the content of the node. In the patent lawyer example a call center to answer questions on the phone would augment the value to the individual of the fixed network. 2) By improving node connections The benefits of broadband are pretty clear 3) By adding intelligence to the network (nodes and connections). Natural language, embedded AI, and agents that perform tasks unattended all add value to the network and individuals within it. The internet was born by using the existing telephone network and leveraging on NEE. Microsoft and Sun new initiatives rely more on NEE than NE. From the GG investor point of view I see that it is important to watch for new products and companies that leverage NEE as well as for companies whose network are growing exponentially. A word of caution: a gorilla is not necessarily born out of NEE. All of the above IMHO Take care JAPG

To: Don Mosher who wrote (38923)	2/26/2001 6:21:10 PM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

upsidetoday.com Wind River inside February 26, 2001 12:00 AM ET by Michelle Rushlo Wind River Systems (WIND) isn't exactly what you'd call flashy. Its logo doesn't pop up on products that use it, ala Microsoft (MSFT) Windows, and it doesn't stamp "Wind River Inside" logos on product exteriors. But that's no accident. The embedded software maker, the largest independent developer of its kind, quietly licenses its operating system for a wide range of products from car braking systems to digital cameras to NASA's Mars Pathfinder. "If you go into your office and look around, there are probably more products that have Wind River in them than Microsoft," said Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette. "Microsoft's on your desktop, but Wind River is in your printer, your cell phone, your [personal digital assistant]." Disclaimer: no position with regard to WIND.