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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (63339)	2/5/2001 9:22:49 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116753

<ABX says loud & long in public they are going shopping> They need to do plenty of shopping to justify their bloated stock price. At 15 1/4, ABX sells at 8 1/4 cash flow (6.2 billion mkt cap/750 milion CF), has * flat production growth going forward and has locked in their upside potential at $340(or guaranteed it, depending on how you look at it). New production at Pascua has been delayed until prices justify it (company says over 300). In the meantime they only spent 41 million in 2000 on new exploration. What is 750 million cash flow worth to a company with depleting assets? I'd say six tops ($11 a share), but more like five times ($9). You can buy a very clean company like Iamgold that is actively exploring for three times CF, and Meridian for five and half times CF. Both have lower cost structures than ABX. * It is interesting to note that ABX anticipates 3.83 million oz production in 2001, up only 90,000 from 2000. Bulyhanlulu will bring them 400,000 new ounces, so El Indio (150K) and Bousquet (160K) are on their way out.

To: long-gone who wrote (63339)	2/5/2001 1:11:33 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

> Don't you agree, though, that despite gold price shares of the smaller miners MUST go higher from here & the XAU lower? It seems the biggest (ABX/AU/NEM/PDG/HM/NDY/GOLD) might well track the XAU, the smallest might still be subject to bankruptcy and liquidation, while the best bets might be in the mid-tier (AEM/GG/MDG/TVX) AS for Barrick, I think it knows that it need to move its target from 5moz to 10moz, so SERIOUS acquisition(s) are needed.